Could Ronald Acuña Jr win 2023 NL MVP?
Ronald Acuña Jr is considered to be one of the most gifted baseball players on the planet.
He's not intimidating in size - listed at 6'0, 205 pounds - but his game looms large.
He hits, and hits for power. His mammoth power was on display at the 2019 Home Run Derby, where he hit the 3rd-longest HR in the derby at 469ft and averaged 111mph on his 39 total home runs.
For a repeat, he participated in 2022's, again losing to HR Derby machine Pete Alonso, and he consoled himself with the 2022 Venezuelan Home Run Derby crown during winter league action.
He's an electric baserunner, always a threat to turn a single into a double, go first to third on a base hit, and steal bags out from under pitcher's noses.
He put it all together in 2019, coming in 5th in MVP voting with 41 HRs, 37 SBs, and an .883 OPS in 156 games.
But then injuries struck - in 2021, while chasing down a ball in right field, he went down with what would be a torn ACL, ending his season that saw him on a TORRID pace - in 82 games, Acuña had 24 HRs, 17 SBs, and 52 RBIs, easily making him the leading vote getter in National League All-Star Game voting and the betting favorite for NL MVP.
Ronald came back on April 28th, 2022, initially splitting time between RF and DH as the team was cautious with his surgically-repaired knee. He performed respectably, finishing with 15 home runs and 11 stolen bases in 119 games, but it was evident from watching (and talking to him) that he wasn't the same player he had been before injury. He acknowledged that the knee was frequently sore and stiff, and it limited him not only physically on the field but also mentally.
"I’m really happy to say that I feel 100 percent, and obviously since 2021 when I was injured, I couldn’t say that. Now, there’s no more excuses.” he said to reporters upon reporting to Spring Training.
And boy, does he look the part.
At the World Baseball Classic, representing Venezuela, he played centerfield and went 4-18 at the plate with three stolen bases.
And when he got back to spring training, Ronnie raked.
On Saturday, against the Twins, he went 2-4 with a mammoth home run and a triple.
The various projection systems out there (ZiPS, Steamer, etc) are kind to Acuña. The consensus seems to be around a batting average of .273 with 30 home runs and around 5 WAR, but there's one category with wide discrepancy - stolen bases. ZiPS gives Ronald only 28, while Steamer has a much larger 43 successful steals.
Acuña was asked at Braves camp about his goals for the 2023 season:
“First and foremost, my main goal is to just stay as healthy as possible,” he said to David O'Brien of The Athletic ($), through an interpreter. “My goal is to play every single game. With that said, I want to steal as many bases as possible.”
I think, if healthy, a repeat of 2019's chase for 40-40 - prevented only by a mild hamstring strain in the season's final week - is not entirely possible, but likely.
MVP's aren't required to have high steal numbers - most don't, in fact. The highest steals number for an MVP over the last decade is Astros 2B Jose Altuve's 32 in 2017.
But the storyline - having the elusive 40-40 season - that's too good for MVP voters to ignore.
And if Ronald Acuña Jr. becomes just the 5th member of the 40-40 Club, joining Jose Canseco (1988), Barry Bonds (1996), Alex Rodriguez (1998), and Alfonso Soriano (2006)...well, he'll not only be MVP but the Braves will probably find themselves in the World Series.
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