Key Metrics Give Braves Good Reason for Hope for Michael Harris II

After a promising second half of 2025 and what began as a promising spring training, the Atlanta Braves are faced with another slow start from Michael Harris II. This is at least when looking at some of the usual stats.

In 44 plate appearances, he’s batting .209 with a .530 OPS, one home run, a 52 OPS+ and a -0.1 WAR. This time around, he’s still far from the worst-qualified hitter in baseball, by virtue of some weak starts to the season by others, but the Braves are still hoping to see certain results from their center fielder.

However, when looking at some of the more underlying metrics, the team has a reason for hope that Harris can turn the corner. These metrics indicate that Harris has experienced some tough luck.

Based on how he’s hitting the ball, Baseball Savant has him rated in the 82nd percentile or better in the following metrics:

xwOBA: .395 (84th)
xBA: .297 (84th)
xSLUG: .624 (96th)
Average exit velocity: 92.9 mph (92nd)
Barrel rate: 17.6% (88th)
Hard-hit rate: 55.9% (88th)
Bat speed: 75.3 (90th)
Strikeout rate: 14.6% (82nd)

These are all significant improvements compared to where he ranked at the end of last season, which factor in his lowest of lows and highest of highs. The decision to tweak his swing midway through last season is still showing results when looking between the lines.

When looking at his xwOBA over his last 100 plate appearances, dating back to September, it’s jumped up from .246 on Sept. 13th to where it is now. He went from well below average to well above.

He especially handles the four-seam fastball well. He’s batting .286 with a .429 slugging and a 71.% hard-hit rate against that specific pitch.

There are still some notable deficiencies that stand out, and shouldn’t be too surprising. He’s ninth percentile for chase rate (41.3%) and and seventh percentile for walk rate (2.4%). Once again, Harris is hitting the ball hard, but his plate discipline has been there. Progress can at least be found in his lower strikeout rate, but the lack of walks remains a major sticking point.

He’s also struggled more against breaking balls, most notably the changeup.

So, naturally, the chase rate is going to counter out some of the hard-hitting we’ve seen from him so far. That being said, like in the latter half of last season, if he continues to make contact the way he does, it should start to translate to better traditional stats.

It's unknown how long it will take, but there is something here. Something will drop or find the gap. Perhaps, when it rains, it'll pour.