Braves Could Face Tough Roster Cuts as Key Offseason Deadline Approaches

Everyone loves a big free-agent signing, but some of the most important offseason decisions happen well before the headlines. On Nov. 20, the Atlanta Braves have to decide which arbitration-eligible players they're going to keep.

In his October 26 offseason calendar, MLB.com's Mark Bowman identified five names facing that decision: Bryce Elder, James Karinchak, Michael Grove, Dylan Lee and Joey Wentz.

Luke Williams would've been the sixth arbitration-eligible player for Atlanta this offseason, but after refusing an outright assignment to Triple-A Gwinnett on Oct. 14, Williams elected to enter free agency. I only bring up Williams to say that keeping him around would've given the Braves a weapon that I've previously written they need more of in 2027: speed.

Here's the quick version of how the process works. Teams have to tender contracts to the players they want to retain through the arbitration process by the deadline. If a team doesn't, that player generally becomes a free agent. It sounds simple, but when you're trying to build a roster with real needs, every dollar and every roster spot matters. The question for Atlanta is which of these five players are worth protecting.

I'll start with the easy ones. Dylan Lee looks like a pretty straightforward call. He put together a 3.09 ERA, 77 strikeouts and a 0.97 WHIP across 67 innings in 2026, and he did it as a left-handed reliever, which isn't exactly a position of strength in Atlanta's bullpen. To be fair, his second half wasn't as sharp as his first, but I don't think that changes the decision. He's been steady during his tenure with the Braves, so he's the kind of arm you keep.

Bryce Elder is another one I'd be comfortable tendering. He finished with a 4.11 ERA over 26 starts, and that's not a number that jumps off the page. But it's starting pitching depth, and Atlanta can scarcely afford to lose any right now, given all the injuries they suffered last season. Depth has a way of becoming a lot more valuable in October than it looks in November, and if the Braves are looking to improve the rotation, they're going to need someone who can take the ball when injuries pop up. Elder fits that description.

Now let's talk about the more interesting group: Karinchak, Grove and Wentz.

Karinchak is probably the toughest to figure out. He posted a 1.86 ERA across nine games, but the Braves didn't use him all that much, which makes me wonder how much the organization values him. The numbers say he's worth a small investment. Atlanta's usage says otherwise. I'd lean toward keeping him if the price stays modest, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if he's a non-tender candidate.

Grove and Wentz are more about cost and risk. Neither is expected to be expensive, which is the whole appeal. Wentz missed the entire 2026 season with a torn ACL he suffered in spring training, so his decision is going to come down to his health. Grove appeared in just seven games, and it's hard to see him being a major part of the 2027 plan. If you're looking for a place where the Braves could trim, it's here, but I'd say the savings are small enough that it might not matter. Sometimes the best move is keeping a cheap arm and seeing what happens.

Anyway, the bigger question is the philosophy. Alex Anthopoulos has two ways to go. He can keep inexpensive pitching depth around, even with some inconsistent performance, or he can create flexibility to go after outside help. Frankly, I think it's a balancing act.

The savings from non-tendering any of the lower-cost names are small, so I don't see these decisions as the thing that opens up the budget. They're more about roster spots, and what's the value of holding one for a pitcher who may or may not help.

Add in the possibility of a lockout after the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on Dec. 1, and the internal options take on a little more importance. If the offseason gets compressed, having a few familiar arms sitting there isn't a bad thing.

To be clear, none of this is reported organizational intent. Atlanta hasn't announced any tender decisions, and anything I'm saying about who should or shouldn't be tendered is my opinion. But I'd keep Lee and Elder, take a hard look at the others, and let the roster's needs guide the cuts. Before long, we'll find out which direction the Braves go.

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