Cardinals Elimination Number: Playoff Hopes Could Be Dead Soon

The Cardinals won yesterday, but still aren't in good shape.

Sep 13, 2026; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Alec Burleson (41) hits a three-run double against the Chicago White Sox during the sixth inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Le-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The St. Louis Cardinals managed to play the role of spoiler again this month as they took two of three from the Chicago White Sox, who lead the American League Central. The Cleveland Guardians moved to within a half-game of the White Sox on Sunday, so the Cardinals are still very much impacting the playoff race.

However, they're own playoff hopes are essentially a wash. Entering this week's series against the San Francisco Giants, they are seven games back of the San Diego Padres in the National League wild card race.

San Diego faces the Colorado Rockies this week, the team with the worst record in the NL, and while the Giants have the second worst record in the NL, they swept the Cardinals last week. The wild card standings show that the Cardinals have an elimination number of five.

If they are swept again by the Giants and the Padres sweep the Rockies, the Cardinals' playoff hopes will officially be dead by the end of the day on Wednesday.

Cardinals could be eliminated soon

In truth, the fact that the Cardinals are still mathematically alive this late in the season is nothing short of impressive considering where expectations were at the start of the season. For most of the year, the Cardinals have actually been above .500. It wasn't until late July that they fell under for the first time.

The Cardinals also traded Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado and Brendan Donovan, essentially stripping their roster of veteran players and paving the way for younger players to step up. In a lot of ways, the young players have lived up to the challenge of becoming the next group of veteran leaders for this team.

But the Cardinals were never supposed to be a contender in 2026. They simply never had the pieces to be that kind of team. Still, they have taken a lot of steps forward this year.

Their playoff hopes were slim to begin with, so if by Wednesday they are eliminated from the race, it won't come as a huge surprise. There is still a lot of work that needs to be done as they rebuild. Chaim Bloom has made a lot of strides this season, but it's going to take a little while before the Cardinals can truly consider themselves a contender once again.

The offseason will give them another chance to take steps forward for the future.

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