How Pete Crow-Armstrong Overtook Shohei Ohtani As the NL MVP Favorite

The Cubs’ center fielder is the league’s best defender and has been red-hot at the plate all summer. His improvement could be enough to unseat Ohtani as MVP.

After a slow start to the season, Crow-Armstrong has recorded an OPS above 1.000 in every summer month. | Matt Dirksen/Getty Images

For a while, it seemed a foregone conclusion that Dodgers two-way star Shohei Ohtani would run away with the National League’s Most Valuable Player award for the third straight year. But the inspired play of Pete Crow-Armstrong has warped that narrative, and as we head into the final seven weeks of the season, the Cubs center fielder has not only entered the conversation, but has emerged as the favorite to win the award outright.

Ohtani is dealing with a lingering knee injury, which has resulted in him being removed from the Dodgers’ rotation as he looks to get back to full strength. He hasn’t pitched since July 3—though he’s still suiting up as the DH in L.A.—and that absence from the mound has opened the door for Crow-Armstrong to overtake him in the MVP race. 

Ohtani has 26 home runs, 71 RBIs and a .937 OPS this season. At the plate, he’s generated 3.5 fWAR in 112 games, while adding another 3.0 fWAR on the mound, where he’s recorded 1.79 ERA with 95 strikeouts against 26 walks in 85 ⅔ innings pitched. He’s been elite in both roles, but Crow-Amstrong’s dominant run over the summer has been too significant to ignore. 

Crow-Armstrong has been MLB’s best defensive player in 2026, and it’s not particularly close. He leads the league in outs above average with 22, eight more than any other outfielder.  The 24-year-old has also prevented the most runs in MLB (20). He’ll almost certainly win the Platinum Glove this season for the first time in his career, but could also realistically take home the NL MVP award, too.

Crow-Armstrong is essential to the Cubs’ success. He has a 1.139 OPS in their wins and a .615 OPS in their losses this year. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Crow-Armstrong’s stellar defense is nothing new. He’s been a gifted center fielder since debuting in MLB in 2023, but it’s the strides he’s made at the plate that have truly vaulted him into MVP contention. Crow-Armstrong has raised his on-base percentage over 100 points between this season and last, going from .287 in ’25 to .388 in ’26. Although he still strikes out a ton (26.8% strikeout rate in ’26, more than 82% of hitters), his walk rate has more than doubled year over year. He drew just 29 walks in 157 games last season (4.5% walk rate) but already has 64 free passes in 119 games this year (12.3% walk rate). The major boost in OBP is the main catalyst behind his career-high .932 OPS, which ranks third among qualified hitters, trailing only Yordan Alvarez (1.059) and Ohtani (.937). But he’s also hitting the ball better than ever before.

This season, Crow-Armstrong has hit 26 home runs and recorded 71 RBIs (identical numbers to Ohtani’s production at the plate). He’s also been a demon on the base paths, logging 30 stolen bases in 37 tries. Crow-Armstrong has a total of 56 extra-base hits, six more than Ohtani, and has scored 84 runs, 11 more than Ohtani. 

PETE CROW-ARMSTRONG WINS IT WITH SOME AGGRESSIVE BASE RUNNING!

(Via: @MLB) pic.twitter.com/LOwLYwLDfe

— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) August 6, 2026

One key area in which Crow-Armstrong struggled last season, and in previous campaigns, was his inability to hit against left-handed pitchers. Last year, he had a .838 OPS against righties, but that figure plunged to a dismal .594 against lefties. In ’26, he has improved his OPS against southpaws to .945, an increase of over 250 points, to the point where it’s higher than his OPS against righthanders (.925). That’s an incredible leap from year to year as he’s developed into a complete hitter by eliminating some of his most glaring flaws. 

Crow-Armstrong’s ascension into a five-tool superstar has culminated in a league-best 8.0 fWAR. Outside of him and Ohtani (6.5 fWAR), no other player in MLB has more than 5.6 fWAR on the year. In what has become a clear two-horse race for the league’s most prestigious individual award, Crow-Armstrong has garnered an edge thanks to his prolific defense in center field.

It’s not impossible for Ohtani to retake the lead in the race for NL MVP, though the longer he’s unable to pitch, the more room there is for Crow-Armstrong to widen the gap between them. The expectation is that Ohtani will return to the mound before the end of the regular season, but of course, the Dodgers will exercise extreme caution with him as they aim to win their third consecutive World Series. 

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