Chicago Cubs Get Encouraging World Series Projection After Season's First Month

As Major League Baseball approaches its first full month of in-season play, the projections are starting up, calling some clubs into action while others are sitting pretty.

According to current Simple Rating Systems percentages put out by Baseball Reference, the Chicago Cubs are leading the league with a 15.9% chance of winning this year's World Series.

The Cubs are currently No. 1 in the NL Central, putting up impressive numbers in some of their latest matchups across the entire league.

There is no doubt Chicago has notable heat backing up their play, but could the standout crew of Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Justin Turner really lock down a championship ring in 2025?

Baseball Reference's current odds to win the 2025 World Series, based on their Simple Rating System 👀

What do you think of these odds? @baseball_ref pic.twitter.com/vXG7h2FvDI
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) April 29, 2025

First impressions of Baseball Reference's projections might have many fans wondering why the Los Angeles Dodgers are only pulling ninth place, which is a valid question after their astounding performance in 2024. Multiple teams, including the Dodgers, even possess better records than the Cubs.

However these odds are calculated, Chicago is displaying the characteristics of a championship-caliber team, taking on Los Angeles' roster with ease during their most recent meeting with the reigning champions.

The scores have been speaking for themselves, but the real validity of these odds can be seen through the chemistry that players like Tucker and PCA have. With a possible extension in the works, it would greatly improve the Cubs' existing chemistry to have Tucker around for the long run.

Even after only one month, Chicago is pulling some impressive milestones as far as their own club is concerned, fitting the mold of champions quite well.

The Cubs batters didn't strikeout at all in today's game, marking the first time since July 3, 2013. pic.twitter.com/xJ8XEDi0UH
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) April 30, 2025

The Simple Rating System (SRS) that Baseball Reference uses for projections like these is a cut and dry system, taking into account the statistical and numerical factors of baseball only. With that being said, there are many other factors that play into a club's successful season; the numbers are just the most reliable factor to be taken at face value.

SRS specifically takes into account runs scored and runs allowed. But in baseball, a lot more goes into the game.

Following the Cubs closely are the Detroit Tigers, sitting at 15% odds of winning the World Series. The Tigers also lead their division by as many as one and a half games, similar to Chicago's current success.

The Cubs have plenty of season left to prove themselves despite where other successful teams fall on this list. With Baseball Reference backing up their play, Chicago should look to erase all doubt as the 2025 campaign continues rolling on into the summer.

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