Cubs Hold Crucial Advantage as NL Wild Card Race Tightens

For the Chicago Cubs, the end of July and the beginning of August felt like walking up the CTA steps right as the train arrived. Oh, so satisfying!

Conversely, the end of August and the beginning of September have felt like sprinting up the stairs as the train speeds away ... only for it to start pouring rain. Oh, so frustrating!

The Cubs had a real shot at catching the Milwaukee Brewers at the top of the NL Central a few weeks back. After a split series and a recent loss in their latest three-game set, any hope of accomplishing this has essentially been dashed. In the process, the Cubs have also watched their stronghold on the top Wild Card spot disintegrate.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been among the hottest teams in baseball, completely erasing the Cubs' advantage. The two are now in a stiff battle for that No. 1 Wild Card spot, with the Phillies holding a mere half-game lead after a big 1-0 win over the Atlanta Braves.

All things considered, this now projects to be a stiff battle until the final week of the regular season. What's at stake? The right to host the ever-stressful Wild Card series in your home ballpark. No trips into enemy territory. This proved to be a key difference-maker for the Cubs last season, who stole the Wild Card series in three games from the San Diego Padres in front of a rowdy Wrigley Field crowd.

As things currently stand, the Cubs would be on the road in Philadelphia. This would leave the third-place Wild Card team, the Arizona Diamondbacks, to face the Atlanta Braves out East. With that said, it's not out of the question that the Diamondbacks or San Diego Padres catch the Cubs. Would it be a wise bet to make? Probably not. But only a maximum of 4.5 games separate the teams, and you can (unfortunately) never rule out an epic collapse in this sport.

The good news for the Cubs is that it would be nearly impossible for them to miss the playoffs altogether. They have a 99.0 percent chance of clinching, per Fangraphs. Craig Counsell's team also has some winnable series left on the board, with the Pirates, Reds, and Marlins still to go.

More importantly, however, is where things stand in the season series between the Cubs and their fellow Wild Card opponents. A lot of that work has already been done!

Cubs Have a Small But Important Edge in Wild Card Race

Sep 7, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell makes a pitching change in the eighth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

If the Philadelphia Phillies want to sneak past the Chicago Cubs, they will have to finish with one more win. Thanks to a dominant 6-1 regular-season series win, the Cubs will hold any tiebreaker over the Phillies for the first-place Wild Card seed.

To be sure, there is plenty of reason to believe that the competition would be far fiercer if the two met this October. All seven games were played in April of this year, when the Phillies were struggling to get off to a strong start. Having said that, the Cubs are sure happy they took advantage of that moment, as it may be a difference-maker in the coming weeks.

The Cubs have also clinched tiebreakers over both the Diamondbacks and Padres. While they lost their last two meetings to Arizona only weeks ago, they stole the series opener and swept them during the first half of the year. Speaking of which, Chicago also swept the Padres in one of their two series, holding a 5-1 record against them this regular season.

Again, there is a good chance the Cubs fend off both teams from stealing the second Wild Card spot. But if a scenario does arise where a tie becomes likely, the Cubs at least know they have the upper hand.

Obviously, this is something the Cubs are hoping doesn't matter a lick. Their goal is to secure the top NL Wild Card spot outright and hold their first set of postseason games at the Friendly Confines. At the same time, the closer we do get to October, the more important storylines like this become. The Cubs can at least feel slightly less pressure knowing that some of the dirty work was done earlier this season.

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