How the Cubs and Padres Fare in Head-to-Head Stats Ahead of Wild Card Series

The NL Wild Card Series between the Chicago Cubs and the San Diego Padres is a rematch of epic proportions.

The Cubs took the matchup in three games last year, holding off a late San Diego comeback in Game 3 to win their first playoff series since 2017.

This year, the stage will shift to Petco Park instead of Wrigley Field, and both teams look a bit different. The Cubs (89-73) may have won the season series 5-1 between the two, but San Diego (91-71) went 18-6 in September and played its best baseball in the past month, while the Cubs went just 11-13 and struggled to close out close games.

Let's take a look at how the Cubs and Padres match up head-to-head on offense, pitching, and defense this season.

Offense

Cubs	Statistics	Padres
.251	Batting average	.244
.339	On-base percentage	.319
.428	Slugging percentage	.398
.767	OPS	.718
220	Home runs	183
114	Stolen bases	164
10.6%	Walk rate	9.1%
21.1%	Strikeout rate	21.6%
5.2	Runs per game	4.5
37.8	fWAR	23.2

The Cubs were baseball's best overall offensive team in 2026, so it's no surprise that they hold the edge over the Padres in nearly every major stat category besides stolen bases.

In the six games played between the two this season, the Cubs scored 55 total runs, with a large chunk of them coming in a 23-3 win at Wrigley Field on July 1. The Cubs tied the franchise record for home runs hit in a single game (8) in that rout.

With likely NL MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong in tow, the Cubs have the best overall player in the matchup. Crow-Armstrong slashed .280/.372/.570 with a .942 OPS and the co-MLB lead in home runs with 45. He loved hitting against Padres pitching this year, too, going 8-for-22 with four home runs, 10 RBI, and a 1.391 OPS in six games.

The Padres' most dangerous hitter is still Fernando Tatis Jr., who had a slow start to his 2026 season but heated up down the stretch to post a season slash of .289/.358/.470 (.828 OPS) with 25 home runs. Against the Cubs this season, however, he struggled. Tatis went just 6-for-26 with a .684 OPS and six strikeouts to zero walks.

Pitching

Cubs	Statistics	Padres
4.12	Total ERA	3.98
4.27	Starting pitcher ERA	4.42
3.90	Bullpen ERA	3.53
1.26	WHIP	1.29
20.8%	Strikeout rate	21.7%
8.2%	Walk rate	9.1%
36	Saves	48
231	Home runs allowed	180
6.0	fWAR	15.0

It also comes as no surprise to see the gap in production between the Cubs' and Padres' pitching staffs this season. While the Padres' starting rotation tended to struggle, they have perhaps the most menacing bullpen in the league, anchored by Mason Miller.

Miller recorded 38 of the Padres' 48 saves this season and led MLB in fWAR among relievers with 3.7. His 129 strikeouts led MLB as well, and his 1.67 ERA led the NL.

Ironically, the Cubs were Miller's Achilles' heel this season. In his three appearances (2.2 innings) against Chicago, he allowed two earned runs on five hits and struck out just two of the 12 batters he faced.

The Cubs also have a few new faces on the pitching staff since the last time they played the Padres, namely trade deadline acquisitions Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes. Both have strong chances of starting a game in the wild-card series and it will be intriguing to see how the Padres approach them.

Fielding

Cubs	Statistics	Padres
73	Outs Above Average	18
116	Defensive Runs Saved	31
70	Fielding Run Value	36
61	Errors	64
32	Caught stealing	51
92	Stolen bases allowed	106

The 2026 Cubs are a historically elite defensive team by all accounts. They'd have the edge over anybody in the league head-to-head, and it shows especially in advanced metrics like OAA, DRS, and FRV.

There's not much more to be said about Crow-Armstrong either, who is the best defender in the league and the likely Platinum Glove winner. The Cubs also have an airtight infield defense with Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner and Alex Bregman on patrol. Swanson's defense was a major factor in the Cubs' wild-card series win over the Padres last year.

One important stat that the Padres have the advantage in is their stolen-base prevention. San Diego led the league with 51 runners caught stealing, and that could be tough for the Cubs to exploit in late-game baserunning situations.

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