Cubs Magic Number Watch: The NL Wild Card Race Just Got Wilder

The Cubs, Phillies, and Padres are deadlocked with a week left in the regular season. How does it affect the Cubs' playoff hopes?

Sep 18, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (4) waits on deck to bat against the Cincinnati Reds in the second inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

And just like that, we have a three-way tie for the top NL Wild Card spot.

Just eight games remain in the regular season, and the Chicago Cubs, the Philadelphia Phillies, and the San Diego Padres sit in a deadlock entering play on Saturday.

THREE-WAY TIE IN THE NL WILD CARD RACE 😱

The Cubs, Phillies and Padres are all at 85-69 with eight games to go 👀 pic.twitter.com/2HGNEXR8K3

— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) September 19, 2026

The bad news for the Cubs is that, after dropping Friday's series opener in Cincinnati, the Padres won against Miami to put all three teams on level terms.

The good news is this: The Cubs won the season series over both the Phillies and the Padres, so that keeps them at the top for now.

And while the three wild card teams scrap for the first spot, the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are the first team out, continue to falter in the season's final stretch. A third straight loss puts them five games out of the third wild card spot, and it means the Cubs' magic number to clinch at least the final playoff spot is now 3.

What Are the Cubs' Magic Numbers?

The Cubs still control their own destiny to clinch the top NL Wild Card spot. | Screenshot, playoffstatus.com

Because the Cubs own the tiebreakers over Philadelphia and San Diego, it means they're the only team that still controls their own destiny to clinch the top spot and home field advantage.

As it stands, the Cubs must win eight more games – the remainder of their schedule – to lock up the top seed. The Phillies' and Padres' quest for the top seed depends entirely on how the Cubs do in the final week of the season. They both need to wait and hope that the Cubs drop games while they win as many as possible.

The Phillies also hold the season series over the Padres, which means the Padres have the least leverage in the fight. But the Padres are also playing their best baseball of the year when it matters most, so it's not entirely out of the question.

Remaining Schedules

Here's another look at the remainder of the season for each of the three teams fighting for the top NL Wild Card spot:

Cubs	Phillies	Padres
at Reds (2)	at Mets (2)	vs. Marlins (2)
vs. Marlins (3)	vs. Brewers (3)	at Dodgers (3)
at Red Sox (3)	vs. Rays (3)	vs. Diamondbacks (3)

The Phillies undoubtedly have the toughest remaining schedule, hosting arguably baseball's top two teams in the Milwaukee Brewers and the Tampa Bay Rays. In fact, per Tankathon, they have the hardest remaining schedule in all of baseball in the season's final week. Good news for the Cubs!

The Padres face a reasonably tough test as well when they travel to Dodger Stadium to play their bitter NL West rival.

The Cubs won't have an easy final series against the Boston Red Sox, who comfortably hold the second AL Wild Card spot. But there is plenty of time to find a rhythm against the Reds and Marlins. The Cubs own a 7-4 record in the season series against Cincinnati, and last time out in Miami, they took the series two games to one.

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