Chicago Cubs Shockingly Given Best Odds To Win World Series After Surprising Start

The Chicago Cubs have surprisingly vaulted into the top spot on the World Series odds leaderboard.

Apr 18, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker (30) watches his two-run home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the eighth inning at Wrigley Field. | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

The Chicago Cubs entered the year as long shots to win the World Series, but a few weeks of consistent play now gives them the best chance to take home a trophy.

Popular statistics website Baseball Reference has a constantly updating formula for championship odds. The Cubs currently sit with the best overall odds with an 18.7% chance, ahead of the Detroit Tigers at 14.1%.

Baseball Reference uses what they call the Simple Rating System to figure out these numbers. It essentially uses their strength of schedule to add context to how much better or worse a team is when compared to the average MLB club.

Chicago has become much more justified with their offseason moves, such as going all-in for a trade to acquire Kyle Tucker, as they have proven themselves as true contenders over the early portion of the season.

At this point last season, they had a 4.2% chance to win it all. Their peak was at 6.7%, so they are already far ahead of where they were a year ago. Entering this campaign, they had a 5.9% chance.

The biggest difference maker has been Tucker coming in and having the best start of his career. He is exactly the type of star that a team needs to succeed in the playoffs and has been an MVP candidate through the first couple of weeks this season.

Through 24 games, he has posted a .302/.404/.615 slash line with six home runs and 23 RBI with an OPS+ of 188. He is on-pace for a 41 homer campaign with 27 stolen bases, which would almost be more than the Cubs could have imagined.

Center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong also deserves some recognition for cementing this team. His elite defense has remained and he has started to turn a corner at the plate.

Crow-Armstrong has a .258/.310/.462 slash line with three home runs and an 118 OPS+.

These two are the only offensive players that have accounted for at least 1.0 fWAR so far this season for Chicago.

Their ascension into World Series favorites has been especially impressive given the inconsistencies on the mound.

They have been managing the loss of Justin Steele for the season and the bullpen has been rocky. If they make some expected moves at the trade deadline, they could become even more dangerous.

There is a long ways to go until the postseason, but the Cubs are sitting pretty right now.