Matchup Breakdown: Cubs Lock In Starting Pitchers for Big Holiday Cardinals Series

The Chicago Cubs are looking a lot like their early-season self.

After an extended slump that was kicked off with a shocking ten-game losing streak, the organization has clawed its way back up the MLB ranks. The Cubs have gone an impressive 15-4 since June 11. This also includes winning nine of their last ten games, which featured a full four-game sweep of the Mets and a much-needed series win over the Milwaukee Brewers.

To be sure, Milwaukee still holds a 5.5-game lead for the top spot in the NL Central. But the Cubs can continue to chip away at that deficit this weekend – all while increasing their lead over another stiff division rival.

The St. Louis Cardinals will come to town for a three-game set over this holiday weekend. The second battle will even be held under the lights on primetime for 'Merica's 250th birthday. Chicago currently has a 3.0 game lead over the Cards for the second spot in the division. When considering how up-and-down this season has been for Chicago, as well as how tightly-contested the NL Central has been, stealing this set would feel significant for the Cubs.

The good news for Chicago is that its offense has been the most explosive in baseball over the last couple of weeks. They are fresh off tying a league high in 2026 with 23 runs on Wednesday afternoon. Likewise, this lineup has also smashed 13 home runs over the last two games alone. Over the last 15 days, the Cubs lead the league with an OPS of .887 and 104 total runs scored. The second closest team in runs has been the Phillies ... with 89.

Nevertheless, these heated rivalry games can often come down to who's on the mound. The Cubs have obviously had their struggles in that department, as their IL has become comically long. It's why they recently made a move for a new starting arm, who will make his second start as a member of the squad during this series.

Indeed, the Cubs have announced their starters for this huge weekend series, so let's take a quick look at the looming matchups.

Cubs vs. Cardinals Starting Pitchers

Jun 27, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher David Peterson (19) delivers a pitch against the Milwaukee Brewers in the first inning at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Friday, July 3 – David Peterson (Cubs) vs. Andre Pallante (Cardinals)

David Peterson's first start in a Cubs uniform was serviceable. After things began in concerning fashion with a lead-off home run, the veteran settled in nicely and threw 5.2 innings of work. He only allowed 2 earned runs and five hits, keeping a contact-heavy Brewers offense in check. Peterson also didn't walk a single batter.

The hope was that with the Cubs' elite infield defense behind the groundball-inducing Peterson, he could look a whole lot better than he did in New York. All things considered, this first outing confirmed as much.

As for Andre Pallante, the Cubs got to him early when he took the mound against them on May 29. He only lasted 3.0 innings, with Chicago posting eight hits and 4 runs.

The right has been solid for most of the year, though, with a 3.83 ERA and one of the league's highest ground-ball rates. He also isn't known to allow much hard contact, but that could be a lot easier said than done against this current version of the Cubs' offense.

Saturday, July 4 – Shota Imanaga (Cubs) vs. Kyle Leahy (Cardinals)

Shota Imanaga will get the biggest start of the weekend. The Cubs' lefty has looked slightly better in recent outings. He did allow nine hits in his last performance against the Padres, but he managed to hold them to a mere 2 runs over 6.1 innings. He also avoided walking a batter for the first time since Mid-May.

With that said, his last start against the Cardinals didn't go according to plan. They roughed him up for 5 runs with three homers. The Cardinals aren't necessarily known for hitting many out of the park, but we all know it's been a major problem for Imanaga over his career. They also do a pretty good job making contact on pitches outside of the zone, and getting batters to swing and miss is part of what Imanaga does best.

Kyle Leahy is one of the Cardinals' most balanced pitchers. He has a very deep arsenal and has some great extension, making it hard for opposing batters to know what's coming next. The Cubs struggled the last time they faced him, with just 1 earned run and four strikeouts, and there is reason to believe this could happen again.

Breaking balls have given the Cubs a huge problem this year, and Leahy has both a strong curveball and slider that he likes to turn two as a secondary pitch.

Sunday, July 5 – Javier Assad (Cubs) vs. Matthew Liberatore (Cardinals)

Craig Counsell informed reporters earlier this week that the plan is for Javier Assad to get at least one more start before the All-Star break. Multiple Cubs starters are taking steps in the right direction in their rehab, which hopefully means they can return for the start of the second half.

The magic Assad had early in June has dissipated. He's now given up a combined 9 runs in his last three outings, which have included six home runs. Some days, he can look really locked in, but there are plenty of other times where the matchups just haven't gone in his favor. He has yet to face this Cards team this season, so this start feels like a real toss-up.

With that said, every game for the Cardinals' Matthew Liberatore has also been a toss-up! He's got a 5.33 ERA and has consistently given up some big outings. In June, he gave up a total of 23 runs over his five starts.

Oddly enough, however, one of Liberatore's best games came against Chicago on May 31. He threw 5.1 innings of scoreless baseball with four strikeouts. Will he find similar success, or could that have been more about the Cubs' slump than Liberatore's pitching?

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