Corbin Carroll and the D-backs to Host Rockies for Three at Chase Field

The Arizona Diamondbacks got a well-deserved off day on Thursday after playing 16 games in 16 days. They managed to go 8-8 during the stretch against opponents that would all be in the playoffs if the season ended today. Their record now stands at 23-21 through 44 games.

They host the Colorado Rockies for three games this weekend at Chase Field. Expect them to be wearing the new City Connect uniforms on Friday.

Arizona is in fourth place in the NL West, 5.5 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers. They're also 2.0 games back of the San Francisco Giants for the third NL Wild Card position. The D-backs just took two of three games in Oracle Park against the Giants to move a game closer however.

The Rockies are an MLB worst 7-36. In fact that's the worst start through 43 games in modern MLB history.

Worst 43-game start in the Modern Era (since 1901).#Rockies lose 8-3, get swept by Rangers and drop to 7-36.
— Patrick Lyons (@PatrickDLyons) May 15, 2025

They recently fired long time manager Bud Black, and are currently being led by interim manager Warren Schaeffer. Colorado has yet to win a game under their new manager, having just been swept by the by the Rangers in Arlington, Texas.

The table below shows just how wide the gap is between the two teams, not only in won-loss record but in the basics of runs scored and allowed per game, and overall offense (OPS+) and pitching (ERA+).

Rockies and D-backs head to head stats | Jack Sommers

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Friday, May 16, 6:40 p.m.

The Rockies have not yet announced their starter for Friday's game. According to a source, there is a possibility they might call up Carson Palmquist to make his major league debut. He is still listed as the projected starter for the Rockiess Triple-A affiliate however. In seven starts for Albuquerque, he has a 3.82 ERA and 1.182 WHIP. Those are excellent numbers for a pitcher in the high-octane offensive environment that is the PCL

If they do not call up Palmquist, then they'll likely go with a bullpen game. Anthony Molina, who has pitched in one game and thrown one inning, might get a couple of innings if that is the case.

Corbin Burnes has a 2-1 record with a 2.95 ERA, 4.67 FIP in 39.2 innings. He skipped a start due to a sore shoulder, but returned to pitch his best game of the season May 10, shutting out the Dodgers for seven impressive innings.

Burnes strikeout and swing and miss rates are down, thus his expected metrics are not favorable. Not only is his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) much higher than his ERA, but his 4.65 expected ERA from Statcast is in just the 26th percentile in MLB.

Signed to a six year, $210 million contract, Burnes will need to either find a way to reverse the trends shown in the chart below, or reinvent himself as a pitch to soft contact hurler over the latter half of his career.

Corbin Burnes K% and Swinging Strike % | Fangraphs

Saturday, May 17. 5:10 p.m.

Right-hander German Marquez (1-6, 8.27 ERA, 4.73 FIP in eight starts, 37 IP) is far removed from his All-Star form of 2021. He missed most of 2023 and the first half of 2024 due to Tommy John Surgery. He returned to make one start last year, and then was shut down for the rest of the season in August with a stress reaction in his elbow.

His fastball velocity is still above 95 MPH, but the movement (induced vertical break), is simply not there. His curveball and slider were previously his most effective pitches, but that no longer appears to be the case either. He's simply struggling to find it again.

Zac Gallen is 3-5 with a 4.59 ERA. His peripheral metrics such as 3.64 xERA and 3.94 FIP suggest he has pitched better than his ERA, but it's still a far cry from his peak from All-star Break to All-Star Break in 2022-2023.

Dating back to July 15, 2023, and including the 2023 Postseason, Gallen has made 58 starts, thrown 324.1 innings, and recorded exactly a 4.00 ERA with a 25-20 record. The MLB average starting pitcher ERA over that same span is 4.22.

Whether he can once again establish himself as an ace-level starter remains to be seen. His ability to post up game after game, except for a brief period last year when he struggled with some hamstring issues, and his competitiveness, which usually keeps his team in games, are valuable. But without a marked improvement over the rest of the season, his free agent market price is going to be lower than one would have anticipated just a year ago.

Sunday, May 18, 1:10 p.m.

Rookie Chase Dollander is making his eighth start for the Rockies. So far he is 2-4 with a 6.88 ERA and 6.16 FIP to match. That is because he's given up nine homers in 34 innings pitched. xFIP, or expected Fielding Independent Pitching, regresses his home run per fly ball rate and thus rates him somewhat better at 4.63

Dollander has thrown 34 innings, given up 29 hits, but walked 16 while striking out 32. He brings the heat, with a fastball that averages 97.5 MPH, but the pitch has been hit hard, as eight of his homers have come on the fastball. His curveball has actually been his most effective pitch, with a +3 run value and .134 batting average against.

Merrill Kelly, 4-2, 3.71 ERA 3.79 FIP in nine starts, 51 IP. Kelly has been outstanding this season in all but one game, a nine run disaster in New York in his second start of the year. Since then he's made seven starts and posted a 2.36 ERA and 2.65 FIP. He's recorded five quality starts in this stretch and missed a sixth by just one out.

Kelly twice had to be removed from a game this season due to cramping issues. He and the medical team have come up with a new mid-inning routine for him that has seemed to work over the last two starts. That routine involves him staying more active and not sitting as much, so his body does not "de-regulate" as he put it following his start on May 7. Kelly is in his age 36 season and will also be a free agent at the end of 2025.

OFFENSE

The two best Rockies hitters this year have been been catcher Hunter Goodman, and left-fielder Jordan Beck. Goodman has hit .291 with six homers and has an .829 OPS, or 122 OPS+ once park factors are taken into acount. Beck is hitting .257 and has smashed six homers in 109 at bats, giving him an .836 OPS and 122 OPS+

Shockingly, Ezequiel Tovar is without a homer this year and is batting just .212 with a .257 OBP. First baseman Michael Toglia leads MLB with 61 strikeouts and is batting .215 with six homers and a .661 OPS. Ryan McMahon is batting .208 with six homers and a .720 OPS (95 OPS+).

The Diamondbacks offense has suddenly become very home run dependent. Their 61 long balls ranks fourth in MLB. Corbin Carroll is second in MLB with 14 homers, behind Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber, who each have 15. Eugenio Suarez has 13 homers and ranks fourth.

Ketel Marte has hit five homers in his last seven games, three against the Dodgers and two against the Giants on Wednesday. Marte, who missed four weeks due to a hamstring strain, removed himself from Wednesday's game due to body stiffness, which Torey Lovullo said was hip flexor tightness according to the medical staff. He is expected to play on Friday however.

BULLPENS

As with most teams they face, the Rockies have actually had the superior bullpen performance year to date. Their team 4.10 reliever ERA ranks 18th. Jake Bird has racked up 25.1 innings pitched, the second most by a reliever in MLB, and has posted a 1.78 ERA and a 2.79 FIP. Teammate Andrew Chivilli is the lone reliever with more innings, at 25.2, and has a 4.21 ERA

The Diamondbacks 5.19 reliever ERA ranks 27th in MLB. Co-Closer Justin Martinez is eligible to come off the injured list Friday, but it's not known as of this writing whether he'll need more time to get ready. A.J. Puk is on the 60-day IL and will not be eligible to be activated until June 18

Shelby Miller has been filling in as the primary option for closer. He had to throw 36 pitches on Wednesday to escape a bases loaded jam and preserve an 8-7 victory. He walked in one run. In 18.2 innings Miller has an outstanding 1.45 ERA and 2.84 FIP. He's three for four in save chances.

With the exception of Jalen Beeks, (22.1 innings, 2.01 IP), none of the other setup or middle relievers has perfrmed well since Puk and Martinez went down with injury. Dating back to April 18 the D-backs bullpen ERA is 6.44. No area is in more critical need of improvement if the D-backs hope to secure a Postseason berth.