Ryne Nelson Starts D-backs' Critical Game Against Blue Jays

The Arizona Diamondbacks (36-37) followed up a heartbreaking loss on Tuesday with a lackluster loss to the Toronto Blue Jays (40-33) on Wednesday. They'll have to flush it and prepare for a Thursday matinee game against Toronto, with first pitch at 12:07 p.m. MST.

Salvaging the series finale will be essential, not only to avoid a long losing streak but also to get back to .500 for the season. With the Rockies, White Sox, and Marlins coming up next on the schedule, it will be important for them to gain some confidence going into a soft part of their schedule.

Diamondbacks vs Blue Jays Pitching Matchups

RHP Ryne Nelson (3-2, 4.14 ERA) turned in a solid start last time out, holding the Padres to an unearned run over five innings to pick up his third win of the season. He threw 79 pitches in the outing, so he should be clear to go in the 85-90 pitch range.

Nelson will challenge hitters with his four-seamer, which is averaging 95.6 MPH on the season. He makes hitters swing the bat, with a 7.7% walk rate. However, he doesn't induce a lot of chases or whiffs.

The key for Nelson will be fastball location to the top bar of the strike zone, where its vertical shape can induce weak contact. It's worth noting that the Blue Jays are hitting just .217 with a .355 slug against four-seamers thrown 95 MPH or harder. At the very top of the zone, the average improves to .235 but the slug dramatically drops to .265.

On top of locating the fastball, Nelson needs to punish Blue Jays hitters who sit on it with his cutter, gyro slider, and curveball. That should induce both whiffs and weak contact, if executed correctly.

RHP Kevin Gausman (5-5, 4.08 ERA) is the ace of the Toronto staff, although he's having a down year in terms of ERA. While not as dominant as he was at the start of the decade, Gausman misses bats at a healthy rate and limits free passes.

He relies primarily on a north-south approach with elevated fastballs and splitters that tumble down below the strike zone. He'll occasionally mix a slider, but it accounts for only 8% of his pitches.

As for approach, the Diamondbacks are going to have to eliminate either the four-seamer or the splitter early in the count. Most likely they'll attack the fastball, as opposing hitters are batting .250 and slugging .445 against Gausman's four-seamer. His splitter induces a 36.9% whiff rate.

Diamondbacks vs Blue Jays Starting Lineups

Dbacks at Blue Jays Lineup June 19 | Jack Sommers

Corbin Carroll requested to play today, but Torey Louvllo opted to give him a day to allow his hand to further heal. This according to the Arizona Republic's Jose Romero on X platform. As the team just put Gabriel Moreno on the injured list with a hand contusion, the extra caution is understandable.

Randal Grichuk gets the rare start against a righty, and will play right field. Just called up, Aramis Garcia is not the lineup, as Jose Herrera will catch a fourth straight game and a day game after night.

The top of the Toronto lineup, Bo Bichette, Addison Barger, and Vladimir Guerreero Jr., have terrorized D-backs pitching in the first two games of the series. They've combined to go 15 for 25, .600, with six doubles, four homers, eight runs scored, and 11 RBI.

Jonatan Clase had suffered a right knee contusion on a hit by pitch from Brandon Pfaadt Tuesday night. He's back in the lineup at center field for the Blue Jays.

Bullpen Situation

The Diamondbacks will be without long man Anthony DeSclafani, as he'll operate on a starting pitcher schedule. He should be available in the upcoming Rockies series.

Tayler Scott is also likely out after multiple up-downs in a 29-pitch effort on Wednesday. Kevin Ginkel also threw 29 pitches in a laborious eighth inning.

Ryan Thompson has worked back-to-back days, and four times in the last six days. While the workload is relatively minor, with just 39 total pitches in game, the warmup pitches he threw mean he's probably available in an emergency only situation, if at all.

The rest of Arizona's bullpen should be a full go.

Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen situation entering the series finale against the Toronto Blue Jays on June 19, 2025. Red = High Usage, Yellow = High Pitch Count Inning, Magenta = Multiple Innings | Michael McDermott, Arizona Diamondbacks On SI

The Blue Jays have not had to use a reliever multiple times in the series. Right-hander Yariel Rodríguez might be an emergency-only option after throwing multiple innings on Wednesday. Otherwise, the other seven relievers should be fully available.