Blaze Alexander is at a Crossroads for the Diamondbacks

The utility infielder's hitting projections are not rosy and he'll have to play good defense in order to have a chance to exceed them

Apr 19, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks designated hitter Blaze Alexander (9) hits a grand slam against the San Francisco Giants during the eighth inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-Imagn Images | John Hefti-Imagn Images

This article is part of a continuing series analyzing the individual player projections for each Arizona Diamondbacks player. In doing so we are taking a look at the factors that might influence a player's over or under performance compared to the original projection.

These projections are derived from the composite average of ZiPS and Steamer projections, applied to our own playing time projections. Those playing time projections are a snapshot in time, based on the current state of the D-backs roster as of the time of writing. Roster moves, signings, trades, etc, can and will change that projection.

Blaze Alexander, Infielder, Right-Hand Batter, Age 26

Blaze Alexander 2025 Projection | Jack Sommers

Blaze Alexander rode a hot spring into a surprise opening day roster spot as the main utility infielder, beating out players such as Kevin Newman, Jordan Lawlar, and veteran Elvis Andrus. His hot bat carried over into the start of the regular season. In his first 16 games, 52 PA, he hit .340/.404/.596, 1.000 OPS.

Unfortunately that was accompanied by a spate of defensive miscues and fielding errors while playing shortstop in place of the injured Geraldo Perdomo. The Diamondbacks prioritize defense, and Alexander quickly gave way to the veteran Newman, who took over the everyday shortstop role until Perdomo returned in June. Alexander hit just .210 with a .532 OPS in 133 PA the rest of the way and spent the second half of the season in AAA Reno.

While the cooling of Alexander's bat coincided with the reduced playing time, his early production was not truly sustainable. Most of the drop off was likely due to simple regression to the mean. Even during the hot streak, which lasted through April 19, his expected statistics according to Statcast, were far lower than his actual (.704 expected OPS vs actual1.000 OPS).

Why Alexander may outperform his projection

Despite his struggles Alexander managed walk and strikeout rates in MLB last year that were significantly better than the projections in the above table. Alexander has always shown the ability to draw at least a league average amount of walks and last year's 8.1% was no exception. It stands to reason with more experience, he can at least repeat that and perhaps improve.

Throughout his minor league career Alexander was a line drive machine, posting rates in the mid to high 20's, topping out at 32% last year in Reno. His ground ball rates were usually in the low 40's. In MLB however, his line drive percentage dropped to16% and ground ball rate spiked to 52%. MLB averages are 20% and 42% respectively.

Alexander is entering his age 26 season, and young players tend to improve with opportunity, provided there is underlying talent to support the potential progress. Alexander posted a minor league 136 wRC+ in 2022 and 115 in 2023. That means he was approximately 36% and 15% better than league average on offense.

The talent is there. If he can nudge his line drive and walk rates up towards his previously established levels, his batting average and OBP will be better than the above projection.

Why Alexander may underperform the projection.

There is a wide gap between Alexander's AAA actual and expected stats. The expected statistics from Statcast measure quality of contact, along with walks and strikeouts. Alexander's 2023-24 combined AAA OPS was .834, but the expected OPS was just .712, a whopping 122 point difference.

It should be noted that this type of gap is almost exactly what is to be expected from the hitting rich environment that is the PCL and Reno in particular. In fact, over the last two years the team wide gap between OPS and expected OPS is 118 points. Reno also has the third highest gap between wOBA and xwOBA in all of AAA baseball. This is certainly a park and league run environment issue.

When you take Alexander's expected OPS of .712 from AAA, and then factor in the gap between AAA and MLB, it's not difficult to see why the projection systems see him as a .643 OPS hitter.

Summary

It needs to be noted that after the early spate of defensive trouble in 2024, Alexander calmed down in the field. Three of the six errors he was charged with came in the first two weeks of the season. If he is able to show Torey Lovullo he can be dependable when it comes to picking up the ball, then somewhat more regular plate opportunities will be available, leading to more stability at the plate potentially.

At the same time we should not be too swayed by his first 50 plate appearances of success. That was clearly an unsustainable small sample size. That said, he should have the ability to be a better hitter than this projection.

There is still an opening for Alexander to establish himself and claim a role as the primary utility option. That could even include some outfield reps. But this year is also a crossroads for Blaze Alexander.

The team already traded for defensive specialist Grae Kissinger, in a clear sign they won't tolerate sub-par defense in the utility infielder role. Add to that the need for Jordan Lawlar to play at some point, and Alexander's window may be closing soon.

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