D-backs Ryne Nelson Ended 2 Concerning Trends Against the Mets

Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Ryne Nelson came into Wednesday afternoon's game against the New York Mets at Citi Field, still riding two concerning trends.

For one: Nelson held an 0-3 record and a 6.95 ERA in five career appearances (four starts) against the Mets.

And in a more 2026-focused trend, he also had yet to complete the fifth inning of a start this year. He had not allowed fewer than four runs in an outing — or escaped a start this year without giving up a homer so far in the young season.

Despite the cold weather conditions and some defensive miscues, Nelson flipped both of those narratives in one excellent start against New York Wednesday afternoon.

Diamondbacks' Ryne Nelson flips ugly trends vs Mets

Apr 2, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Ryne Nelson (19) pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images | Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images

Nelson was able to complete 5.2 innings on Wednesday, allowing just one earned run on five hits. He did not walk a batter, landed 64 of his 86 pitches for strikes, and punched out five Mets hitters.

"He was on the attack," manager Torey Lovullo said to D-backs.TV's Jody Jackson postgame. "He limited overall baserunners and traffic.

"In true Ryne fashion, he was able to go out there and just throw any pitch that he wanted to in certain counts. It wasn't necessarily always there for him, but he was in the zone and in the pocket and did a good job."

And Nelson did it despite displaying a notable reduction in velocity. Arizona's right-hander, who is averaging 96.5 MPH on his four-seam fastball this season, averaged just 94.8 MPH on Wednesday. It dropped into the 93-94 range during his final inning of work.

But that is not necessarily a cause for concern.

Nelson — a native of Henderson, Nevada — told Lovullo the cold Queens weather had a bit of an impact on him.

"It was cold out there, and I think he had made a comment that he just was having trouble getting loose," said Lovullo. "He was just grinding through his outing. It wasn't easy for him.

"These conditions are tough on everybody, especially for a team like us coming from Arizona, but he pitched into the sixth inning."

Though Nelson's velocity does add to his plus fastball, the more important factors are the command of that pitch, as well as its Induced Vertical Break (IVB).

The higher a pitch's IVB, the more difficult it is to pick up out of the hand for a batter. It essentially helps a pitch look significantly faster than it actually is.

Nelson's average IVB for the game was 21 inches — two ticks up from its average 19 in his previous two outings. That allowed him to pick up eight whiffs on the offering, while also landing 12 for called strikes.

Nelson's ERA, despite a couple of ugly starts to begin his season, is down to 4.15. Wednesday's game looked much more like the arm that pitched to a 3.16 ERA in 23 starts for the D-backs in 2025 — and Arizona needs that version of Nelson again.