Can Diamondbacks Avoid Realignment Disaster?

Over the last several days, expansion and realignment has been a hot topic in Major League Baseball. On a recent interview on ESPN, commissioner Rob Manfred discussed the possible expansion to 32 teams and the creation of eight divisions with four team's each.

The idea is not only to reap billions in expansion fees for the other 30 teams, but reduce travel time and expenses by creating a radical geographic realignment. You can read a summary of what Manfred had to say from Sports Illustrated's Evan Geitheim.

Since then a firestorm of reaction and analysis has come out projecting what that might look like. The truth is, nobody knows. Expansion itself is likely several years away, no sooner than 2028 or 2029 at the earliest. It's not even a foregone conclusion it's going to happen at all.

If it does happen though, the impact on the Arizona Diamondbacks has the potential to be severe. Almost every proposal that has been floated by various outlets and experts has the Diamondbacks remaining in the same division as the Dodgers, but not the Rockies.

Potential Realignment Could Spell Disaster for Diamondbacks

For example Stephen Nesbitt of the Athletic proposed keeping the American and National League concept, and realigning with the D-backs, Dodgers, Padres, and Giants remaining in the NL West.

Maury Brown of the Forbes proposed D-backs, Dodgers, Padres, and Angels to be in the same division. That's better for the D-backs than Nesbitt's proposal, but it's hard to see MLB splitting up the Dodgers and Giants.

That's a problem. The below table shows the Diamondbacks record within the NL West division since 2017.

Diamondbacks W-L Record in NL West snce 2017 | Jack Sommers

The Diamondbacks are already effectively blocked from NL West title contention by the Dodgers, and the Giants and Padres have taken turns fielding stronger teams than the Diamondbacks in most seasons.

Were it not for the Rockies being in the same division, the D-backs .471 W% would be far lower, dropping all the way to .446.

Add to that the number of games against the division rivals could increase and you have a recipe for disaster. After all, one of the stated goals is to reduce travel and keep teams in the same time zones as much as possible.

So an increase from the current 13 games to 18 games could be possible in a 162-game format.

Possible realignment Schedule | Jack Sommers

One article by Jasyon Stark of the Athletic suggested a 156-game schedule, in which teams would play only 12 games within their own division and six games versus the other teams in their conference.

From a Diamondbacks perspective, that would be slightly better, but the issue of being blocked by the Dodgers still remains.

There is another alternative however. Keep in mind that the likely Western Conference expansion team would be in either Salt Lake City or Portland.

Place the Diamondbacks in a division together with Las Vegas Athletics, Seattle Mariners, and the newly-formed expansion Salt Lake or Portland team?

Such an alignment would still keep most of the team's inter-divisional games in the same time zone. That would make up for some longer flights up to Seattle, but escaping the NL West and the Dodgers would be well worth it.

The Eastern Conference expansion team is likely to come from either Nashville or Charlotte. With that in mind, below is how the divisions could be aligned.

Expansion and realignment will be a thorny subject, and at the end of the day, may not happen any time soon. All 30 teams will have their own agenda, and it will take a lot of guaranteed money to get teams to compromise.

But for the Arizona Diamondbacks, their line in the sand should be escape from the NL West and the Dodgers. The above alignment plan provides that route.

Potential Realignment Could Spell Disaster for Diamondbacks

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