Diamondbacks Move on to Cincinnati for Three Against the Reds

The Arizona Diamondbacks visit Great American Ballpark this weekend to take on the Cincinnati Reds. This will be the first meeting between the two teams this year. The D-backs took the season series last year 5-1.

Fresh off a three-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves, the D-backs have won four in a row and are back to an even .500 with a 31-31 record.

The Reds are 30-33 and have lost four of their last five games. The D-backs are 3.5 games out of the third NL Wild Card spot and the Reds are 5.0 out.

It's notable that the Reds have a +23 run differential, but are 5-10 in one-run games. The D-backs have a -4 run differential, and are 10-11 in one-run games.

It's notable that Great America Ballparks remains one of the most hitter and homer friendly parks in MLB. In fact, only Coors Field has a higher three-year weighted Park Factor rating at baseball-reference (110 to 108). The Statcast Park factors grade the park as the most homer-friendly park in MLB.

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Friday, June 6, 4:10 p.m. MST, 7:10 p.m. EDT

NOTE: This game is an exclusive AppleTV+ broadcast and is not available on Dbacks.TV

Eduardo Rodriguez and Nick Lodolo season statistics — D-backs at Reds Pitching Matchup | Jack Sommers

Eduardo Rodriguez is making his first start since going on the injured list with shoulder inflammation back on May 16. This was a relatively short stint for Rodriguez, compared to 2024 when he missed the first four months of the season with a lat strain.

In 19 career starts with the Diamondbacks he is 4-7 with a 5.99 ERA. The 32-year-old veteran left-hander is signed through the end of 2027 and still owed $58 million.

Nick Lodolo is coming off throwing six shutout innings against the Cubs at Wrigley field, but walked away with a no-decision. He's been the victim of poor run support, getting just 2.9 runs per game while he's in the game. He probably deserves better for a 3.10 ERA. The lefty has never faced the D-backs as a starter.

Saturday June 7, 1:10 p.m. MST, 4:10 p.m. EDT

Ryne Nelson and Nick Martinez 2025 pitching statistics — D-backs Reds Pitching Matchup | Jack Sommers

Ryne Nelson was about to be moved to the bullpen, but the elbow injury to Corbin Burnes has given him a reprieve. Nelson in fact has the lowest ERA of all holdover Diamondbacks starters going back the last calendar year.

Nick Martinez has also struggled with poor run support and has probably deserved a better fate than his 3-6 record. His 3.89 ERA is better than average considering he plays his home games in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league.

Sunday, June 8, 10:40 a.m. PST, 1:40 p.m. EDT

Zac Gallen and Brady Singer pitching statistics — D-backs Reds Pitching Matchup | Jack Sommers

People that don't follow the D-backs closely will be shocked by Zac Gallen's numbers above, but he's given up career-worst walk and home run rates this season. He might have found something to turn around his season in Atlanta however, as he pitched seven strong innings, allowing just three runs, one earned in one of his better starts this year.

Gallen is 1-1 with a lifetime 2.96 ERA against the Reds in four starts. Last year he shut them out for six innings on one hit, three walks and six strikeouts to take home a victory.

Brady Singer is on the opposite end of the spectrum when it comes to run support. He has a 6-4 record despite a 4.66 ERA, having received the highest run support among the team's starters. He took a loss June 2 against the Brewers however, giving up three runs in five innings.

Singer has faced the Diamondbacks twice in his career, in 2022 and 2023 while with the Royals, getting the win both times.

OFFENSE

The Reds' .709 OPS ranks 13th in MLB, but that number is inflated by the home ballpark. Their park adjusted OPS+ is just 92 and ranks 24th in MLB, nine full spots lower. Such is the influence of an extreme hitter's ballpark.

Their best player by WAR is Elly De La Cruz, with 1.8. But that is mostly a function of him playing all 63 games at shortstop, where he enjoys a large positional adjustment. His 113 OPS+ is just 13% better than league average. He has 12 home runs and 19 stolen bases, but his five caught stealing lead the league.

DH Austin Hays is batting .303 and has a team-best 141 OPS+ amongst the starters. Next highest is T.J. Friedl, with a .300 average and 119 wRC+.

The D-backs' offense has been led by Ketel Marte of late. Since coming off the injured list on May 2 he's been on a power binge, mashing 11 homers. He's batting .299/.422/.606, 1.028 OPS for the year. Corbin Carroll has a .908 OPS and a team-high 18 home runs. Eugenio Suárez has 16 homers and a team-best 44 RBI.

First baseman Josh Naylor is day-to-day with shoulder and hand injuries, and may get the first game of the series off against the left-hander Lodolo, at the very least.

BULLPENS

The D-backs bullpen is stretched thin once again. Closer Justin Martinez had to throw 37 pitches on Wednesday night, and while he had the day off on Thursday, may require another day to fully recover.

Shelby Miller got the save opportunity on Thursday, which he converted getting a game-ending double play after walking a batter. He's pitched four times in the last six days.

If neither of Martinez or Miller are available at the start of the series, that leaves Jalen Beeks, Juan Morillo and Ryan Thompson to pick up high-leverage innings, which is less than ideal for Arizona.

Red Closer Emilio Pagan has 15 saves with two blown and a 3.71 ERA. Cincinnati's primary setup men are Tony Santillan and Graham Ashcroft from the right side, and Taylor Rogers from the left. Their bullpen ERA is 4.04, more than a run lower than the D-backs' 5.23. But the reliever FIP is 4.51 compared to Arizona's 4.35.