Will Gino Groover Hit the Grooves on the Ball in 2025?

The star Diamondbacks prospect could make his MLB debut in 2025 which is his goal, but how is he expected to do if he does debut?

Gino Groover gives an interview during the Arizona Fall League media day at Scottsdale Stadium on Oct. 4, 2024, in Scottsdale, Arizona. | Megan Mendoza/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Continuing our series of Arizona Diamondbacks player reviews, fast-rising prospect Gino Groover is up next. The projection below is a composite of ZiPS and Steamer projections, prorated to our playing time projection.

Gino Groover, Right-Handed Infielder, Entering Age-23 Season

Gino Groover overcame injury last year to shine bright in both High-A and Double-A. He then proved his craft in the Arizona Fall League against high-end pitching prospects. This has given projection systems the belief he could find his way into a late-season cameo with the Diamondbacks in 2025.

Gino Groover minor league numbers with the Arizona Diamondbacks and his projected stats for the 2025 MLB season | Jake Oliver

Why Groover may outperform the projection

Groover is known for his ability to hit the ball hard and often. He's a contact artist who hasn't hit lower than .264 in any extended time at any minor league level thus far. Plus, he's had at least a .719 OPS in any lengthy stretch.

Albeit in a good offensive park and league, Groover crushed the ball to the tune of a .340 batting average and 1.000 OPS in 55 plate appearances at Double-A last year.

In 75 plate appearances in the Fall League, he had a .339 average and .767 OPS. He's proving that he can handle top-tier minor league talents.

Should he come close to performing how he did at Double-A this year like last year over the first month or two, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him promoted to Triple-A, setting him up for a potential late-season cup of coffee depending on health in the infield.

Thus, a .255 average even over just 10 games seems like a low number for a player that's able to make routine contact on a variety of pitches.

Not to mention that the walk and strikeout rates would represent a significant change of direction for the worse for him. Across the two minor league levels in 2024, he walked 11.4% and struck out just 13.6%.

That includes a 16.4% rate at Double-A but even that is well under his projection. As often happens in MLB, rookies make plenty of contact and hit for high averages early in their career before MLB pitchers and teams can garner enough data to counter them.

Thus, a sample of 10 games is not that much and it's unlikely that Groover would be bewildered by MLB pitching enough to strike out at such a high clip and walk a career-low rate with not much positive contact. At least with the data that he's provided so far into his short career.

Why Groover might underperform the projection

Despite hitting the ball hard, Groover has yet to tap much into his power or long-ball ability. This would limit his ability to obtain a high slugging rate which in turn decreases his chance to perform better than the expected .717 OPS.

The power is there, as he had a 178 wRC+ in Double-A and slugged .600 with seven of his 17 hits going for extra bases. But, he followed that up with just one of his 22 hits going for extra bases in the Fall League.

The question remains, can he routinely tap into the clear power that he has and be the potential high-contact and slugging infielder? High expectations are on Groover this year and there's no doubt that he can handle them, but hitting Triple-A and MLB pitching for power is tough.

Plus, should there be an injury or two to the infield in the majors and Groover is pressed into extended playing time before he's truly ready, he could certainly fall into a slump or have the holes in his swing be heavily exposed causing him to fall short of the strikeout rate, batting average, and walk rate.

Groover would be a rookie amid a playoff chase with plenty of pressure on him to perform. While he appears to thrive under pressure, that's a lot to ask for a young infielder to handle. Plus, MLB pitching is extremely tough to hit especially if one hasn't had enough time in Triple-A to work out the kinks.

Summary

Groover is a charismatic and extremely talented infield prospect for the Arizona Diamondbacks. He dominated Double-A with the Amarillo Sod Poodles in his short time there and is expected to return to that level for the upcoming season.

Should he stay hot there and at Triple-A, he could find himself using his impressive strike-zone mastery and contact ability to hit well in Chase Field for the first 10 or so games of his career.

On the flipside, he could find his power to stay a bit more elusive than expected and be forced to adapt too soon which could cause him to struggle over an extended look. However, Groover is determined to reach the next goal of his in 2025 as he shared a few months ago in an interview:

"I think my main goal, obviously, I'm a big dreamer. I would love to make it to the major leagues next year. Obviously, a full season under my belt. Go out there, ball, just do what I can, you know, be the player that I know I am and that the team knows I am," Groover said, "And just go out there, and make a statement for myself."

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