The Diamondbacks Need Merrill Kelly's Luck To Change Quickly

The Diamondbacks need a quality outing on Sunday.

Jun 22, 2026; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly (29) pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals during the fifth inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images | Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks will have their backs against the wall against the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday morning, in desperate need of a turn of fortune to avoid being swept out of Tropicana Field in ugly fashion.

There was a time where seeing right-hander Merrill Kelly on the schedule would steer one towards confidence, or at least a calmness due to his reliable consistency.

That has been anything but the case this season, and Arizona's banged-up, struggling rotation needs that to change as soon as possible.

Diamondbacks' Merrill Kelly takes on Rays

Jun 16, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Merrill Kelly (29) throws on the first inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images | Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images

Kelly's most recent start, which came against the St. Louis Cardinals, was hardly one of his worst this season. After all, he delivered six innings and allowed three runs for a quality start, though he was stuck with the loss as the D-backs scored only two runs.

Still, Kelly gave up seven base hits and three walks in the process of that start. For as good as the results might have been, comparatively speaking, it's hard to say that outing was the sign of turning a corner.

Rather, he was able to get away with poor command and escape hard contact with a few fortunate outs.

That has been a theme in some of Kelly's better starts this year. His 5.71 ERA is undeniably the worst of his career, but his expected numbers are even worse. His expected ERA (xERA) is a staggering 7.24, whils his FIP is 5.83.

Essentially, Kelly is pitching poorly, and still getting away with it to a certain degree.

He has not been historically good against the Rays, either, albeit not in a very large sample size. Kelly has made two starts against Tampa — one in 2019 and one in 2024. In both, he gave up six or more runs in five or fewer innings.

In a normal season for the veteran righty, that type of a stat line would be more of an anomaly than anything else. Unfortunately, he's made four separate starts that fit those parameters this season alone.

The Diamondbacks need Kelly's luck to turn. And even then, his luck has already helped him overcome a strange lack of command. With Arizona's offense continuing to struggle with situational hitting, it's almost as if they need a near-perfect start by their pitcher to have a chance.

Kelly is more than capable of having a brilliant outing. Even considering his struggles this year, he does have a nine-inning, one-run performance. He just hasn't had his trademark consistency, and that's what the Diamondbacks brought him back to provide.

Now is as good a time as any.