Ugly Loss to Padres Could Cost Diamondbacks Valuable Playoff Ground

This was less than ideal.

Aug 1, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Kohl Drake (58) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Dermer-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

At this point in the 2026 MLB season, the playoff hunt has already begun.

Though the Arizona Diamondbacks are in relatively strong position, holding a 61-55 overall record and — for the time being — sitting in the third and final National League Wild Card berth, they did not do themselves any favors on Thursday night, losing 5-1 to the San Diego Padres in lackluster fashion.

Losing to a division rival can always be a factor that comes back to haunt a playoff hopeful team. But Arizona might find that the loss in Thursday's finale could be a key one as the race gets even tighter down the road.

Diamondbacks split series with Padres

Aug 4, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; San Diego Padres outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. (right) celebrates after hitting a first inning double alongside Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

To the Diamondbacks' credit, it was a close series when looked at as a collective. The two clubs scored a nearly identical run total in the four-game set. Arizona won the margin by one run, outscoring the Padres 20-19, though they traded blowouts in alternating contests.

The issue is, the Padres earning the victory in the finale now puts them just a half game back of the Diamondbacks in the NL playoff picture. At 60-56, a San Diego win and an Arizona loss would put the two teams in an even tie for the final Wild Card spot.

And that could get dangerous as the season wears on.

Jul 21, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll against the Athletics at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

As it stands, the D-backs and Padres have played 10 games over three series. They've played two four-game sets and one two-game series in Mexico City. They have split all three of them evenly.

For the moment, the Diamondbacks would hold the next-closest tiebreaker, which is intradivisional record.

Arizona has a 23-13 record against their divisional opponents, thanks to both a high level of success against the struggling Giants and Rockies, as well as some consistent back-and-forth play against the Los Angeles Dodgers atop the division. The Padres are 22-17 against the NL West.

The issue is, the D-backs face the Dodgers for three games and the Rockies for three more after that in the coming week. They'll face San Francisco for four games at the end of August.

The Padres, meanwhile, won't see an NL West foe until September 11. So unless the D-backs can take care of business against the Dodgers — who have lost six straight and almost certainly won't continue that trend — and Rockies, they're in danger of watching that divisional tiebreaker evaporate, while the Padres could still overtake them easily by pure record alone.

Meanwhile, there could be all the more pressure for the final series of the regular season — the deciding three-game set between Arizona and San Diego on September 25-27.

There's a very real possibility the Diamondbacks' playoff hopes come down to that very series. And by not earning three of four wins this past week, Arizona may be forced to win that final set or risk their playoff lives.