This is Why Diamondbacks Games Feel the Exact Same Now

Arizona has not been an enjoyable product to consume lately.

Jun 27, 2026; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks short stop Ketel Marte (4) catches the ball during the fifth inning against Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Pablo Robles-Imagn Images | Pablo Robles-Imagn Images

It's starting to feel like Groundhog Day in Arizona.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are, roughly, a .500 team this year. They're 41-42 after their latest loss to the Tampa Bay Rays.

That type of record tends to lend itself to extreme highs and lows throughout the course of a 162-game season. Rarely does mediocrity manifest in consistent, extended predictability for a major league baseball club.

But that traditional high-stakes polarity — which has been a common theme in Arizona's recent seasons — hasn't been the case for the Diamondbacks this year. Instead, it feels like you know what will transpire before a first pitch is thrown.

The format is simple:

Diamondbacks games have become predictable

Jun 22, 2026; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly (29) pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals during the fifth inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images | Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

The Diamondbacks have trailed in the first inning of all three of their games against the Rays. Even prior to this series, they have given up the lead first in 23 of their past 30 games. They are 12-18 in those games.

Though not every game is precisely the same in terms of the way it plays out from inning to inning, the early-trailing woes immediately bring up familiar feelings of dread with each passing day.

Of course, early deficits feeling so game-defining is almost entirely due to Arizona's struggles with situational hitting. It's a topic that's been broken down time after time, because it doesn't seem to be changing, or even showing more than a fleeting sign of improving.

For their most recent sweep by the Rays, the Diamondbacks went 1-for-15 with runners in scoring position. Since the beginning of their 12-18 stretch (and coming into Sunday's 0-for-5 game), they have hit a staggeringly-poor .149 with RISP, dead last in MLB by over 60 points. That is worth a 43 wRC+ (67% below average), and a .496 OPS.

So even when the D-backs respond with base traffic, it feels like a waste before the inning even ends. They have averaged just 2.8 runs per game over the past week. That is not a winning formula.

Jun 21, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll against the Minnesota Twins at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

There was once a time that an early deficit almost inspired confidence in this club. The 2023, 2024 and 2025 teams that were built on wild comebacks and offensive explosions — and, conversely, late-inning bullpen instability.

They never felt out of a game in which they trailed; there was an inherent hope in the lineup that helped to counterbalance the anxiety that accompanied a bottom-five pitching staff.

At the very least, no one could ever accuse recent Diamondbacks iterations of being boring. But that's what they are now — boring. There are no wild swings. There are hardly any lopsided innings or late-game fireworks. Starting pitchers muscle their way through five or six innings, but give up just enough runs (and just early enough) to make games feel over before they reach the middle third.

As such, the general fan consensus is also predictable: fire someone — anyone. Make changes. DFA players. Some of that may be realistic in the coming weeks or months, though wholesale, sweeping changes aren't going to be on the menu yet for a club that could still get hot.

But the Diamondbacks are failing to provide what observers need at this stage.

They don't need to win every game, or put on a high-octane show every night of the week. They do need to show signs of life beyond the excellence of their small circle of isolated stardom. They need to offer at least a taste of the never-say-die attitude that got them to the World Series in 2023 and nearly 90 wins in 2024.

What the Diamondbacks are now is predictable, in an uninspiring manner. The game of baseball is a hard one, but watching Arizona's series this past month has felt almost as hard.