How Good the Diamondbacks Really Are Now at 2026 Halfway Point

Offensive woes, a struggling former ace, and pitching injuries are holding the team back

Mar 26, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zac Gallen (23) hands the ball to manager Torey Lovullo (17) during a pitching change as infielder Carlos Santana (41) and catcher Gabriel Moreno (14) look on against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the fifth inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks have reached the true halfway point of the 2026 season, having played their 81st game against the Tampa Bay Rays Friday night. Coming off a 6-1 to loss, it's a good time to take stock in the team, see where they stand, and where they might be going.

Diamondback' 41-40 Win-Loss Record

The D-backs' 41 wins are the exact same total they had in 2025 to this point. They finished 80-82 last year. The one other time the D-backs had 41 wins at the halfway point was in 2008, a season in which they finished 82-80.

It's notable that the D-backs have never made the Postseason in a season in which they had fewer than 44 wins through 81 games. In 2023, the first season the third Wild Card was introduced, the D-backs had a 48-33 record halfway through.

Diamondbacks Looking up in the Standings

Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo watches his team play against the Angels during a game at Chase Field in Phoenix, on June 17, 2026. | Patrick Breen/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The D-backs are in third place in the NL West,10.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. As has been the case over the last 15 years, the D-backs only realistic pathway to the Postseason is the Wild Card.

Arizona currently sits 2.5 games out of the third Wild Card spot. The Cubs and the Padres are in a virtual tie for the second and third Wild Card slot, while the Phillies are starting to create a little distance from the pack in the first Wild Card.

NL Wild Card Standings Thru June 26 | Jack Sommers

It's notable that in 2025 the D-backs were 3.5 games out of the third NL Wild Card through 81 games, with four teams in front of them. In 2024 the D-backs were just 2.5 games out of a Postseason spot with three teams in front of them despite a 39-42 record.

In 2023 the D-backs had a 2.5 games lead in the NL West at the halfway mark but slumped badly to a 36-45 record the rest of the way. They still managed to barely squeak into the playoffs with a 84-78 record, capturing the third Wild Card. They went all the way to the World Series before losing 4-1 to the Texas Rangers in the Fall Classic.

Playoff Odds

The Diamondbacks began the 2026 season with a 37% chance to make the Postseason according to FanGraphs and a 40% chance per Baseball-Reference. Looking at their current odds, and adding Baseball Prospectus to the mix, their chances appear to be cut in half.

FanGraphs currently gives Arizona a 25.1% chance, while Baseball Reference is all the way down to 9.8%. Baseball Prospectus sees their odds at 23.6%. The composite average of these three is 19.5%.

The simplest way to interpret this is if the 2026 season were replayed 10 times from here on out, the D-backs would make the postseason twice, and fail to make it eight times.

The Difficult Path Forward

Arizona Diamondbacks Executive Vice President and General Manager Mike Hazen (left) introduces the team's new manager, Torey Lovullo, during a news conference at Chase Field on Nov. 7, 2016, in Phoenix. | Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The D-backs have their work cut out of them. With a struggling offense that ranks 11th in the NL with 4.28 runs per game, they'll need a big turnaround. That's especially true in the situational hitting area. They ranked first in Batting average with runners in scoring position on May 25 with a .294 mark. Now they rank 18th with a .243 average w/RISP just over a month later.

The lone bright spot on offense has been Corbin Carroll, who just set the franchise record with his 53rd triple. He's batting .282 with a .909 OPS. Ketel Marte (.770 OPS) and Geraldo Perdomo (.703 OPS) have struggled to meet expectations heading into the season.

At the same time the pitching staff also ranks 11th in the NL with a 4.31 ERA. Ryne Nelson and Michael Soroka just went on the injured list, with Nelson recently transferred to the 60-day IL.

Zac Gallen (6.15 ERA), Merrill Kelly (5.71) and Brandon Pfaadt (5.92) all have inflated ERA. Corbin Burnes and A.J. Puk had setbacks with shoulder injuries during their rehab, and won't return until September, if at all. The bullpen has been good, but overtaxed.

Manager Torey Lovullo has the team fighting, trying to win at the margins. That's evidenced by their defensive rank in Fielding Run Value. Their +23 runs is second-best in all of MLB. But if they don't start hitting, and can't get healthy in the rotation, that's just not going to be enough.

General manager Mike Hazen said he plans to be a buyer at the trade deadline. Just how much prospect capital he's willing to spend to find true upgrades remains to be seen. If the team does not start playing better, he might hesitate to follow through on that plan aggressively, or at all.

Lovullo's contract is up at the end of this season. It appears that a playoff appearance may be necessary to save his job. Whether or not the D-backs have the horses, or the health to get there is are questions that will be answered soon.