San Francisco Giants Could Make Franchise-Altering Play for Top Slugger

If the San Francisco Giants opted to go after this free agent next offseason, it could alter the direction of the franchise at a key position.

Feb 17, 2025; Dunedin, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays infielder Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) prepares for a drill during spring training at Cecil B. Englebert Complex. | Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images

The San Francisco Giants have a plan at first base and it’s pretty clear.

The first part is to get through this year with players like LaMonte Wade Jr. and Wilmer Flore. Then — fingers crossed — top prospect Bryce Eldridge is ready to take over in 2026.

That’s the plan. But talent development isn’t linear. Just because Eldridge stormed through the Giants’ farm system last season doesn’t mean he’ll progress as fast this year.

Consistent power is key at first base. It’s a position that demands run production. The belief is that Eldridge will be able to handle it. But that’s projection.

The reality is that a player like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is as close to a lock for production at first base as you’re likely to get in next offseason’s free-agent class. That’s why CBS recently ranked him No. 1 among next year’s free agents.

Recently, Guerrero put a stop to potential extension talks with Toronto as the Blue Jays didn’t meet his self-imposed deadline. He doesn’t want to talk money during the season, so it’s clear he’ll probably hit free agency in November for the first time.

What will he cost? Well, it won’t take just Willy Adames money, that’s for sure.

For Guerrero, CBS estimated that he would become the seventh free-agent hitter to clear $35 million in average annual value and sign a 12-year, $456 million deal, which would be $38 million. CBS also admitted it was erring on the conservative side.

For context, Adames, a shortstop, recently signed the largest deal in Giants history, a seven-year, $182 million deal. Signing Guerrero would be, by far, the biggest contract San Francisco has doled out.

But the soon-to-be 26-year-old is certainly worth checking in on. In six MLB seasons he has a slash line of .288/.363/.500/.863 with 160 home runs and 507 RBI. He’s made four All-Star Game appearances, won two Silver Sluggers and a Gold Glove.

Two factors could influence what the Giants do. First, there’s the money. Per Spotrac, the Giants have an expected adjusted payroll of $125.6 million for seven players that are under contract. That doesn’t include arbitration-eligible and pre-arbitration players. It also gives the Giants roughly $97 million in tax space for next season.

The second factor is what to do about Eldridge, their prized first base prospect. If San Francisco went this route, the Giants would probably have to trade him. The benefit to that would be that a prospect like Eldridge can fetch quite a haul to a franchise hungry for a young first baseman.

The upside would be tremendous for San Francisco but would also require altering the plan.