Five SF Giants prospects improving their stock with hot starts
Welcome to the first SF Giants prospect stock watch, where we take a look at the players in the farm system who are improving their stock during the 2023 minor league season. Before reading, be sure to check out our top 42 prospects ranking and the prospects who just missed the list to get acclimated to players throughout the farm system.
SF Giants prospects stock up: 1. Patrick Bailey (Giants #20 prospect)
Stats (103 PA): .281/.369/.416, 3 2B, 3 HR, 12 BB, 23 K, 2 SB
We have talked about Patrick Bailey playing below the expectations of being a first-round selection throughout both the 2021 and 2022 seasons. He admitted that he was homer-happy at times throughout the past two seasons that have hurt his offensive production at the plate and wants to get back to a more "hitter-ish" approach, the one that he had in college. I have criticized his play before but I have to give him credit when credit is due.
Bailey's ability to change his approach like a flick of a switch impressed me and we can't deny the results that we saw from him in Richmond throughout the first month of the season. Aside from making much more contact than ever before as a pro, he's still a very patient hitter who looks for pitches that he can make good contact with. The only qualms that you can make with Bailey so far are that he is still a much better hitter on the left side and the still-notable number of passed balls.
Still, Bailey has done more than enough to recoup most of his lost stock back and he has opened his big-league path once again as a lefty hitter who can play catcher. Bailey should enter the top-10 prospect conversations because he has played like one in my eyes so far.
SF Giants prospects stock up: 2. Wade Meckler (Giants #39 prospect)
Stats (72 PA): .438/.486/.609, 6 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 6 BB, 9 K, 1 SB
There is no single hitter in the Giants that has raised their prospect stock based on their performance so far this month other than Wade Meckler. We already know based on his interview with Giants Baseball Insider last September that he is a hitting technician, but no one could have expected this level of performance.
Among prospects with at least 10 games played in the Northwest League, Meckler is among the league's top-five players in every triple-slash category. He's consistently looked like a man amongst boys at the batter's box with a sound plan and impressive barrel and strike-zone control. All of that equates to the best hit tool in the organization with at least a plus grade. He will never become a huge home run threat but his ability to consistently square up balls results in plenty of doubles and gap-to-gap power.
Meckler was out for some time after he was hit on the hand, but he's looked back to normal since returning. The eighth-round pick from Oregon State last year has turned himself into a prospect worthy of being talked about among the top 30 prospects in the organization.
SF Giants prospects stock up: 3. Carson Ragsdale (Just missed the list)
Stats: 6 GS, 24.2 IP, 2.92 ERA, 17 H, 4 HBP, 3 BB, 38 K
The SF Giants have quite a few Carsons in their farm system currently with Whisenhunt and Seymour. However, there is a certain Carson who has taken a back seat but is still highly liked in the prospect community: Carson Ragsdale, who the team acquired in a trade with the Phillies for Sam Coonrod prior to the 2021 season.
Ragsdale missed the majority of the 2022 season after undergoing thoracic outlet surgery and was only limited to a couple of rehab starts down in the Arizona Complex League. 2023 is essentially Ragsdale's first game back after flashing great potential a couple of years ago down in San Jose with 167 strikeouts in 113.2 innings pitched. From the looks of things, Ragsdale's stuff is back as he can still hit 95 mph with his fastball that has good life above the zone that High-A hitters are often late at and paired it with his true plus curveball and a mid-80s cutter to throw hitters off. He's also been a strike-thrower since his return with 68% of his pitches having thrown for strikes.
It looked to me like Ragsdale never really had any injury whatsoever with the quality of his stuff this year. He's ready to take his place back inside the top 30 prospects, and the only issue that I see from him is that his worthy promotion to Double-A might wait for a bit longer as he continues to bulk up the workload having not thrown in a full-season setting in more than a year.
SF Giants prospects stock up: 4. Jack Choate (not ranked)
Stats: 6 G, 21 IP, 1.29 ERA, 12 H, 2 HBP, 9 BB, 37 K
Over the course of the winter, I have talked highly about plenty of the last year's draft class like the aforementioned Meckler, third-rounder William Kempner, and fifth-rounder Liam Simon to name a few. However, the best-performing prospect out of the bunch not named Carson Whisenhunt so far is the ninth-rounder from Division II Assumption College.
Choate always had the traits from his tall, 6'8" frame to his funky mechanics including his low 3/4 arm slot, but we just don't know about him enough to properly make an evaluation of his game. After four outings this month, we have properly evaluated him, and he looks really good. The fastball only tops out at 93 mph but his long levers and the extension that he creates coupled with his arm slot results in a pitch that looks a couple of ticks faster. His secondaries also flash promise with his slider having good sweep and his changeup having good depth.
The left-hander pushes himself more and more inside the top 30 prospect conversation with every jaw-dropping performance but it is still good to temper expectations for now as we have not yet seen him when he does not have his A-game. By then, we can properly evaluate what he could become in the future. I will continue to talk about him more and more if he can continue to perform at such a high level because there is definitely a path for him to become a big-league arm.
SF Giants prospects stock up: 5. Thomas Gavello (not ranked)
Stats: 108 PA, .321/.477/.642, 6 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 11 BB, 26 K, 1 SB
The 2022 draft class is shaping up to be a good one for the Giants as their later-round selections have turned into noteworthy prospects. Drafted in the 13th round from Pacific, Gavello is the best hitter in an impressive San Jose squad by becoming the only hitter in the team that is inside the top 10 in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, and home runs after the first month of the season.
Gavello is not the twitchiest athlete in the world, but he can make plays on both sides of the ball. In the batter's box, Gavello has an easy left-handed stroke where he has good rhythm at the box and has feasted on righties so far with a 1.273 OPS against them. He might not be a big home run threat down the line, but he has the potential to hit double-digit home runs in a season. On defense, Gavello has shown that he is capable of playing third base, second base, and even behind the plate as the catcher, although it's hard to say he projects as an above-average option at any of those spots going forward.
Back in 2021, Giants fans have been enamored with Brett Auerbach's versatility on defense paired with a solid-looking bat. Unfortunately, Auerbach plateaued in the upper minors. However, Gavello gives the Giants farm system another versatile piece to look forward to, and look forward to me mentioning his name more and more if he continues to perform at a high level.
Honorable mentions: Fellow 2022 draft selections Liam Simon (Giants #38 prospect) and Hayden Birdsong (Just missed the list) are also "stock up" candidates with their strong starts to their 2023 season and both have premium stuff to warrant a top-30 consideration. Young arms Gerelmi Maldonado (not ranked) and Manuel Mercedes (just missed the list) also deserve consideration due to their good stuff and, specifically for Mercedes, the growth that he's shown in terms of his control.
Older bats Logan Wyatt (not ranked), Jimmy Glowenke (not ranked), and Luis Toribio (Just missed the list) deserve consideration for their hot start to their season though they did not make it due to their high strikeout rates, especially for both Wyatt and Toribio. The same argument can also be said for Tyler Fitzgerald (Giants #20 prospect) though I like Fitzgerald's game a lot and he could be considered a top-15 prospect at this point in time. I have also given Luis Matos (Giants #4 prospect) a serious look due to his growth in terms of being a more patient hitter at the box, but his production is still in line with my expectations for him this season.
