San Francisco Giants Rank Near Bottom of MLB With Recent Playoff Projections

Recent projections don't paint a pretty picture for the San Francisco Giants' playoff hopes.

Dec 12, 2024; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants shortstop Willy Adames shakes hands with president of baseball operations Buster Posey during his introductory press conference at Oracle Park. / Robert Edwards-Imagn Images

San Francisco Giants legendary catcher Buster Posey knows what it takes for a team to reach the mountain top in baseball.

He helped the franchise win three World Series titles as a player and is now undertaking the massive task of helping bring them back to prominence as a member of their front office.

Posey was named president of baseball operations in the Giants first major move of the offseason. It signaled the dawn of a new era, as he was replacing Farhan Zaidi, who held the position for seven years.

He came over from the Los Angeles Dodgers, where he was the general manager from 2014-2018. In his seven years leading San Francisco, the team managed to make the playoffs only once and their stay was short; they were eliminated by the rival Dodgers in the NLDS in five games.

It is going to take a lot of work for the Giants to get back to the level they were at when Posey was on the roster.

However, he did start taking steps to improving the team’s outlook this offseason as his first move was signing shortstop Willy Adames to a seven-year, $182 million contract, the largest in franchise history.

He and Matt Chapman are one of the best shortstop/third base duos in baseball, both capable fielders and impact performers at the plate.

Unfortunately, beyond those two, the lineup is lacking established talents.

Outfielder Heliot Ramos and second baseman Tyler Fitzgerald showed promise in 2024 and can hopefully build on that. There is still hope center fielder Jung Hoo Lee can start acclimating to the MLB and produce near the level he did in the KBO.

Things aren’t too much better on the mound, were San Francisco has an incredibly reliable ace in Logan Webb and not much else in the way of certainty.

There is certainly a lot of depth, but Robbie Ray, Justin Verlander, Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison and Hayden Birdsong all carry their own question marks. The bullpen could use some help as well with Camilo Doval’s production falling off a cliff in 2024.

With so much uncertainty surrounding the team, it should come as no surprise that projections don’t paint the best picture for the Giants heading into the 2025 campaign.

PECOTA has recently shared their playoff chances for each team and San Francisco has only a 15% chance to make the postseason. That is the 10th lowest in baseball and not all too shocking given the division they are stuck in.

2025 Playoff Chances (PECOTA):

100% LAD
90% ATL
87% CHC
78% NYY BAL NYM
75% TEX
69% PHI
63% MIN HOU
62% ARI
58% SEA
49% TOR
38% SD
32% TB
31% KC
29% CLE
26% MIL
22% DET
19% STL
15% SF
12% BOS
8% LAA
6% PIT WSH
5% CIN
2% ATH
0% CWS MIA COL

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) February 3, 2025

The Colorado Rockies, who have a 0% chance at the postseason, are the only NL West team behind the Giants.

All of the others have at least twice as good of a chance at qualifying, with Los Angeles being at 100%, the Arizona Diamondbacks at 62% and San Diego Padres at 38%.

There is a large gap San Francisco needs to close within their own division before they can seriously begin to contend for a playoff spot.

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