Cleveland Guardians updated path to clinching 2025 MLB Playoff spot

A Guardians' win and Astros' loss on Thursday would clinch a playoff spot for the second consecutive season for the first time since 2017-18.

Sep 11, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians right fielder CJ Kayfus (63) is greeted by manager Stephen Vogt (12) after hitting a two-run home run in the eighth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images | David Richard-Imagn Images

Toronto, New York, and Seattle were the first three American League teams to clinch a playoff spot. Somehow, someway, the Cleveland Guardians have a chance to join that group tonight.

If Cleveland sweeps Detroit for the second time in two weeks, the magic number for the AL Central drops to one, meaning that just one Guardians win or one Tigers loss in the final three games of the season would hand Cleveland the division. If the Houston Astros lose tonight in addition to a Guardians’ win, due to the Guardians’ three game lead plus tiebreaker, Guardtober becomes official.

The Guardians sat 69-70, double digit games out of first place in September, and have rolled off an improbable stretch of baseball to reach this point.

When Stephen Vogt replaced Terry Francona as Cleveland’s manager, few could have predicted Cleveland wouldn’t skip a beat, or dare I say improve. Francona’s squads, while legendary, failed to make consecutive postseason appearances in his final five years at the helm.

Vogt’s team is likely making their second consecutive postseason appearance in his second year. What’s even more impressive? How much tougher the AL Central has been during Vogt’s tenure. Francona won the Central four times as Cleveland’s manager: 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2022. Across those four seasons, only once did another AL Central team qualify for the playoffs. In Vogt’s first season at the helm, the Tigers and Royals also reached the playoffs.

This year, it’s very possible the Central produces multiple playoff teams once again.

It would take an unmitigated disaster for Cleveland to miss the playoffs, not to say that that’s out of the question looking at the Tigers’ September. Should Cleveland take their 13th AL Central crown, either Detroit or Houston will await. The Tigers lead the Astros by one game in the wild card standings, but wins from Cleveland and Houston today would tie Detroit with the Astros entering the final three games of the year.

Guardians fans should be wishing to see the Astros in the wild card. Despite a 5-0 record against Detroit in the last two weeks, it feels like Detroit would be due for a bounce against Cleveland. Tarik Skubal walked away with losses in his last two starts against Cleveland, and Jack Flaherty is 0-3 despite pitching well against the Guardians. Seeing Tarik Skubal in a best-of-3 series would unsettle even the most daunting teams.

Houston, on the other hand, is unravelling at the seams as fast as the Tigers. After sweeping the Rangers last week to close Texas’ playoff hopes, the Astros got swept by the Mariners in a series that could have leapfrogged them ahead of Seattle. Making matters worse, the lowly Athletics have taken the first two games from Houston this week. 

While the Guardians should be popping the bubbly this weekend, Detroit heads to Fenway Park and Houston departs for Los Angeles. The Red Sox present a scary weekend series for the Tigers, as Boston has everything in the world to play for as they try to avoid the sixth seed in the AL. Houston gets the Angels, who have been scheduling tee times for this offseason since Tax Day.