Cleveland Guardians' X-Factor Down The Stretch Is Clear

In the middle of June, it looked like the Cleveland Guardians’ playoff hopes were all but lost as the team dropped 10 straight games. However, that tide has turned, and the Guardians are back in the postseason hunt with their destiny fully in their hands.

If Cleveland is going to reach the playoffs this season, of course, Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, Kyle Manzardo, Gavin Williams, and the bullpen are going to be crucial.

However, the Guardians’ main X-factor in a potential playoff run is clear: it’s Gabriel Arias.

Jun 7, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians shortstop Gabriel Arias (13) fields a ball hit by Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena (not pictured) during the seventh inning at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images | Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Entering the season, it looked like Arias was out of the Guardians’ long-term plans. He had been given plenty of opportunities to prove himself and was never able to fully establish a role on the team over an extended period.

But to Arias’ credit, he never stopped putting in the work, and when the Guardians moved on from Andres Gimenez over the offseason, one more opportunity emerged for the 25-year-old, and he’s run away with it.

This season, Arias has a .682 OPS, 86 OPS+, and has hit eight home runs.

However, it’s not the total of Arias’ season stats that make him the team’s x-factor. His numbers are drastically different in Cleveland’s wins versus their losses, proving how important the shortstop is to the team’s overall success.

When the Guardians win, Arias has a .284/.347/.465 slash line with an OPS of .881. However, when Cleveland is on the losing side of a matchup, the slugger has slashed just .184/.232/.305 with a .537 OPS.

Needless to say, that’s quite the disparity.

There’s more to it than his numbers in wins and losses, though.

With the game on the line, Arias is arguably the player the team wants most at the plate, of course, not named Jose Ramirez. In high-leverage situations, Arias owns a 212 wRC+ in 32 plate appearances, which is the highest mark on the Guardians.

Aug 4, 2025; New York City, New York, USA; Cleveland Guardians shortstop Gabriel Arias (13) celebrates his three run home run against the New York Mets with designated hitter David Fry (6) and first baseman Carlos Santana (41) during the sixth inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

The impact that Arias can have on a game was evident during Cleveland’s sweep over the New York Mets this week.

In that three-game stretch, he tallied six of the team’s RBI. Arias smoked a three-run homer in the first game, hit a game-tying single during the second game, and extended Cleveland’s lead in the finale with an RBI line drive.

Cleveland’s offense has its holes, there's no doubt about that. However, there’s also no denying that when Arias is swinging a hot bat, the Guardians have a much better chance at logging a win, and they need him to continue doing that throughout the final six weeks of the season.

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