Mariners Have Two Wild Card Edges Over Twins After Byron Buxton Injury

A favorable schedule only matters if Seattle stops wasting favors.

Aug 17, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins center fielder Byron Buxton (25) reacts after hitting a single during the fourth inning against the Atlanta Braves at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Whether they want it to be or not, Byron Buxton’s bad hip is now part of the Seattle Mariners’ playoff picture. The Twins’ All-Star center fielder has landed on the IL for the third time since July. Buxton knows surgery eventually awaits, although he wants to make another attempt at returning while Minnesota remains alive in the playoff race.

Seattle has to leap frog several teams, the Twins being one of them. At the start of play Friday, the Mariners are 66-75, one and a half games behind the 67-73 Twins. They were still 4 1⁄2 games behind Cleveland for the final AL Wild Card, with Minnesota, Texas, Toronto and Baltimore all standing between them and a playoff spot.

One rival losing its biggest star won’t clear the entire crowd. But it does leave Minnesota vulnerable at a moment when Seattle owns two advantages.

Mariners Already Owns the Tiebreaker Against the Twins

The M’s took four of six from Minnesota this season, and those wins could carry more weight than we realized at the time. MLB no longer plays a Game 163, so head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker. If the Mariners and Twins finish with identical records in a two-team tie, Seattle gets the nod.

They still need to catch Minnesota. But they don’t necessarily have to finish one game ahead, either. Of course that also means both teams need to go on a run. Seattle already completed the difficult part by winning the season series.

We should also keep the bigger picture in view. Passing Minnesota only removes one car from a five-team traffic jam. Texas, Toronto and Baltimore entered Thursday tied at 69-71, with Cleveland holding the final Wild Card position at 70-69.

Seattle’s September Schedule Leaves Nowhere to Hide

Here is Seattle’s second advantage: the schedule is practically begging for a run. (We’ve broken that down recently here.) Minnesota’s next four series come against the White Sox, Tigers, Guardians and Yankees. That stretch includes the AL Central leader, the team currently holding the final Wild Card and an 80-win Yankees club.

The Twins must navigate it without knowing when Buxton will return. Rookie Walker Jenkins will receive the primary work in center field, but asking a top prospect to replace an established All-Star during a playoff chase is no simple handoff.

It’s fair to have hopes for the Mariners to rip off a bunch of victories down this final stretch. But favorable schedules have a way of becoming embarrassing schedules when a team fails to take advantage. The Athletics, Angels and Rockies aren’t going to lie down. Their records only remove the excuses.