Mariners Should Re-Sign Randy Arozarena, but His Price May Stop Them

Sometimes Randy Arozarena can turn left field into a dare. We’ll brace ourselves for a fly ball hit in his direction. Then he’ll climb the wall and rob a home run. Next, he’ll walk to the plate and deliver a clutch hit to win the game. He’ll cause Mariners fans to roll their eyes in the middle innings with poor defensive play, then have the entire ballpark on their feet in the ninth.

The Arozarena experience is never clean. But most of the time it’s absolutely valuable. Through September 2, Arozarena was slashing .273/.369/.468 with 22 home runs, 20 stolen bases and a 4.5 WAR. He has made consecutive All-Star teams with Seattle and just completed his sixth straight 20-20 season. No matter what kind of chaos he brings, it’s wrapped inside of reliability.

He has been one of Seattle’s few dependable offensive threats during a season where too many established players haven’t been nearly as reliable. He gets on base, hits for average, hits for power and creates trouble on the bases. All that, and his glove still doesn’t get a free pass.

His routes are shaky. Routine plays occasionally acquire rather unnecessary plots. Yet reducing Arozarena to his defensive lapses misses the player entirely. On August 22, he robbed Miguel Amaya of a home run, hit two of his own and walked off the Cubs. He did almost everything a position player can do to win one game.

Seattle has lived with the frustrating moments because Arozarena keeps delivering moments few other players on this roster can produce. For the most part, his impact has worked out enough to keep the Mariners somewhat alive this late in the season.

But when we think about what happens when the season comes to a close, it gets really expensive.

Lázaro Montes Should Complement Randy Arozarena, Not Replace Him

Arozarena reaches free agency after the season and will play next year at age-32. MLB recently ranked him as the third-best player in the upcoming class. Meaning his market won’t wait for Seattle to come around.

We also received a revealing preview at the trade deadline. Arozarena was believed to be available before the Mariners ultimately kept him for their playoff chase. Holding onto him showed that they understood his value for this season. But that doesn’t mean they have commitment beyond it.

The Mariners will also have a convenient reason to move on. Lázaro Montes is expected to receive more major-league at-bats this month. And Michael Arroyo is another young bat knocking at the door. The youth movement is on its way, and both players deserve legitimate opportunities.

That doesn’t mean they require Arozarena’s departure. But it still won’t make it any less likely. Montes played 40 of his 43 Triple-A games in right field and will also receive time at DH. Arroyo has been developed as an infielder/outfielder. Neither prospect needs Seattle to throw its starting left fielder into free agency. Prospects should deepen a good lineup, not become an excuse to remove its most reliable veteran. They also have to consider the impact Dominic Canzone has had on this season, and whether we like it or not, they’ll also have Luke Raley under contract next season.

Paying a 32-year-old a big contract carries risk. So does expecting an unproven prospect to replace four-win production. Seattle will be tempted by the second risk because it’s cheaper. So we shouldn’t be surprised when they decide to lean into that.

That’s why Arozarena probably will not return. The Mariners can point toward his age, his market, his agent (Scott Boras) and their young hitters, then call the decision disciplined.

If the offense gets worse, we can call it what it actually was. A mistake.

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