Mariners Saw Signs of a Randy Dobnak Breakout Before Trading Him to the Royals

Randy Dobnak was supposed to be just ordinary pitching depth. The Mariners signed him to a minor-league contract, sent him to Tacoma and where he would be held for emergency while getting in steady work. Now he’s giving the Kansas City Royals considerably more than that.

Dobnak has gone 2-0 with a 1.16 ERA and 1.19 WHIP across 31 innings since reaching their major-league roster. He’s completed at least four innings in all six appearances, including four starts, and recently earned his first MLB victory since 2021 by throwing seven shutout innings against the Twins.

Every successful outing shows Seattle what they’ve been missing out on.

Randy Dobnak Was Already Surging in Tacoma

Dobnak’s overall numbers with the Rainiers were easy to shrug off at the beginning. He finished with a 4.24 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 39 strikeouts over 70 innings. Nothing there demanded attention. But his final month before being traded showed something significantly different.

He left Tacoma after four consecutive quality starts, producing a 2.63 ERA across 24 innings. He completed six innings in every start and issued only three walks. His six quality starts were tied for third-most in the minors when the Royals acquired him.

Kansas City didn’t reinvent him. They just had the space to give him an opportunity. He’s succeeding with the same basic formula he displayed in Tacoma. He keeps hitters off-balance by changing speeds with his secondary offerings. He’s not going to overpower them. But he keeps the game intact.

The Mariners Treated Useful Depth as Disposable

Seattle’s rotation was crowded when Dobnak triggered the upward-mobility clause in his contract. They were still rolling out six starters, and obviously the organization has been high on Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan. There was simply nowhere for Dobnak to go. However, it is strange that converting him to bridge reliever didn’t seem to be on the table.

Dobnak’s clause forced Seattle to add him to the 40-man roster or make him available to other teams. Kansas City offered the roster spot and clearer path to the majors. The decision was understandable. At the same, it looks like a mistake.

The Mariners concluded Dobnak was replaceable despite his strong finish in Tacoma. The Royals decided he could stabilize an injured rotation. His current production doesn’t look entirely sustainable. Baseball Savant gives him a 4.87 expected ERA, while his strikeout and walk rates leave little room for error. We shouldn’t expect him to maintain this sub-2 ERA.

That still misses the point though. If the Mariners had the option to carry a bulk reliever, that has value through a long season. They had one here. And they decided to let him leave.

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