Inside The Mariners

TEREN'S TAKE: It Will Take a Hefty Haul For Mariners to Pull Off Meaningful Trades

For Seattle to make significant improvements at the trade deadline, the organization will likely have to dip into their elite farm system.
Teren Kowatsch|
Baltimore Orioles right fielder hits a single during a game against the St. Louis Cardinals on May 26 at Camden Yards.
Baltimore Orioles right fielder hits a single during a game against the St. Louis Cardinals on May 26 at Camden Yards. | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

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Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners are at a crossroads in their season. And no matter which drection they go, there will be bumps in the road.

The Mariners are 33-33 on the season and three games behind the Houston Astros in the American League West after a 10-3 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday.

Seattle has been hit with the injury bug in a big way this season, but ace Logan Gilbert and starting outfielder/first baseman Luke Raley are expected to return in the coming weeks. However, the Mariners can't rely on their injured players to right the ship.

Seattle has proven it's capable of winning successfully over long stretches, as evidenced by its nine series win streak earlier in the season. But the team is running out of time to make meaningful contributions to the playoff race and the Wild Card race has the potential to be even more competitive than it has in previous seasons.

This has led to the speculation that the Mariners will be aggressive at the trade deadline, which is exactly what the team needs to be.

Seattle has been reported to have interest in Chicago White Sox outfielder Luis Robert Jr. (along with the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies) according to Francys Romero. The Mariners have also been speculated to be potential fits for multiple All-Stars: first baseman Ryan O'Hearn (Baltimore Orioles) and outfielder Jarren Duran (Boston Red Sox). Starting pitching and relievers have also been areas the Mariners have been speculated to have potential interest in. Which makes sense considering the injuries and struggles both units have faced this year.

These are good names for Seattle to be tied to, and exactly the kind of players the organization should be targeting. But for the M's to acquire them, it would come at potentially uncomfortable costs.

Trade rumors around Duran have been mostly speculation. The most concrete reports have been about teams having interest in him rather than Boston making him available, so that won't be a trade I'll be focused on. Instead, I'll be looking at potential packages for O'Hearn and Robert.

First with O'Hearn. He will likely be one of, if not the most coveted player at the July 31 deadline. The eight-year veteran is in the middle of the best season of his career. He's slashed .311/.395/.492 with an .887 OPS and has hit nine home runs with 24 RBIs in 55 games.

The Orioles have had a disappointing season. Barring several unexpected collapses and a resurgent second half, Baltimore will likely look to re-tool and bounce back in 2026. That already puts the Mariners behind other rumored interested clubs as potential suitors.

Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Logan Gilbert and Bryan Woo are likely the guaranteed untouchables. It's also unlikely Seattle breaks up the starting rotation.

Thus, the farm system is the most likely place that they'll be dealing from.

Seattle has nine top 100 prospects according to Baseball America and MLB Pipeline and has even more prospects near that caliber. The Mariners have been reluctant to trade their elite minor leaguers in recent seasons. And with O'Hearn, who will be a likely rental due to him being a free agent at the end of the season, it would give even more pause for the M's. But Seattle might not have a choice. And since the Orioles are probably more interested in major league talent, the M's may have to go further than they want on the prospect front to send them in that direction.

As for Robert, Seattle has been rumored to have interest in him for years, which might help or hurt the organization in its efforts to acquire him.

The White Sox are still in the midst of a rebuild and are stocking their farm system with prospects. The Mariners have the depth in the minor leagues to offer Chicago an enticing package without touching the top 100 players.

But Seattle's documented interest in Robert might lead the White Sox to push their luck in potential negotiations, which the Mariners would have little leverage against. Seattle's outfield has been hit hard with the injuries to Raley and Victor Robles this season, and the Leody Taveras experiment came to an end after he was designated for assignment Monday.

The issue is that Robert will probably also be a rental. He has two $20 million club options for 2026 and 2027. He's slashed .184/.269/.304 with a .573 OPS and has hit six home runs with 26 RBIs and has stolen 21 bases. Barring a torrid second half, it's hard to imagine Seattle taking on $20 million for 2026.

But therein lies the impasse the Mariners find themselves at. Even if top brass has the season chalked to a wash at the deadline, the team would hardly benefit at all from selling. Their farm system is already arguably the best in baseball. Despite the injuries, the starting rotation still boasts three All-Stars, (likely four soon with the year Woo is having). Rodriguez and Raleigh are firmly entrenched as the faces of the franchise and won't being moved. It's hard to imagine Seattle getting any value that exceeds the players it moves on from.

But the Mariners have run out of time, goodwill and, frankly, excuses not to be aggressive. For the sake of the season and possibly the front office, Seattle needs to make a splash. Whatever ripples those splashes make will be jolting regardless given the current state of the organization, but they need to happen.

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Teren Kowatsch
TEREN KOWATSCH

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