Breaking down how the Mets can catch Phillies in NL East race

The Mets are seven games back of the Phillies in the NL East. Here's a potential path for them to catch Philadelphia and win their first division crown in a decade.

Jun 22, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber (12) slides home to score against New York Mets catcher Luis Torrens (13) in the seventh inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images | Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

The New York Mets enter the last week of August with slim odds to win the National League East. A mix of poor play and questionable urgency has allowed the Philadelphia Phillies to surge past the Mets in the division, building a season-high seven-game lead entering this week's three-game series at Citi Field.

Pitching probables for #Phillies-Mets:

Mon.- Cristopher Sánchez (11-4, 2.46) vs. Kodai Senga (7-5, 2.58)
Tues.- Jesús Luzardo (12-6, 4.10) vs. Sean Manaea (1-2, 5.15 ERA)
Wed.- Taijuan Walker (4-6, 3.44) vs. Nolan McLean (2-0, 1.46)

— Scott Lauber (@ScottLauber) August 24, 2025

The teams have played six times already this season, with the Mets sweeping a three-game series at Citi Field in April before dropping two out of three at Citizens Bank Park in June. There is also another four-game series set for Philadelphia in the second week of September, so the Mets have a lot of opportunities to make up ground on the Phillies in head-to-head matchups.

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The good news for the Mets is that their offense has started to pick up, with the bats looking more potent over the past two weeks, which could help against a strong Phillies' offense. The Mets do face two lefties in this series, however, which has been a bit problematic for them over the course of the season.

Swaggy V at it again! pic.twitter.com/4BguNVGqW7

— New York Mets (@Mets) August 24, 2025

If the Mets can win at least three of their seven meetings with the Phillies, they will secure the all-important season series tiebreaker, which would give them the NL East crown if they finish with the same record as Philadelphia. Winning only three times in that stretch would also mean the Mets lose a game in the standings, meaning they would be potentially staring at an eight-game deficit with 15 games remaining in the regular season.

How The Mets Can Still Win The NL East

The math is not in the Mets' favor as FanGraphs puts their odds of winning the division at a shade under 8% after Sunday's action. Simply winning 4 of 7 games against Philadelphia would give the Mets a season series tiebreaker but only gain one game in the standings, leaving them with six games to make up with a tougher schedule than the Phillies.

The odds would change more dramatically if the Mets can find a way to win both of their series with the Phillies, securing two of three in New York and three of four in Philadelphia. Doing so would allow them to shave two games off of their NL East deficit, secure the tiebreaker, and put them five games back.

Traditional thinking in baseball circles is that most teams can make up one game a week in the standings if they play well, so with five weeks left in the regular season the Mets could theoretically make up one game a week to erase the remaining five games in their deficit, securing the division title on a tie.

The odds of that happening are slim, however, since the Mets haven't shown the ability to string together consistent success since the middle of June. The Mets also have a more difficult schedule than Philadelphia down the stretch, so it is a tall order to expect them to play better against more difficult competition to snag a division crown.

The good news for the Mets is that the math still favors them securing a Wild Card spot, with FanGraphs giving them a nearly 79% chance to wrap up a postseason berth over Cincinnati, their closest pursuer at this point. The Wild Card route was a successful one for the Mets last October as they rode it all the way to the NLCS, but the road could be more difficult in 2025 with a potential path through the Dodgers and Phillies just to reach the same point as they did one year ago.