Expert pours cold water on Pete Alonso's free agency outlook

New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso's solid 2025 season doesn't quell some free agency concerns.

May 16, 2025; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) reacts after striking out against the New York Yankees during the eighth inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Jones-Imagn Images | John Jones-Imagn Images

New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso signed a two-year, $54 million contract (which includes a player opt-out after the 2025 season) with the club back in February, just a short time before spring training. This concluded a rollercoaster offseason of negotiations with Alonso's team and the Mets' front office.

At more than one point last winter, it seemed like Alonso was destined to move on and sign with another team instead of returning to Queens. Ideally, he wanted a long-term deal, while the Mets weren't willing to offer him one because history suggests that right-handed first basemen over the age of 30 inevitably decline, in terms of production — and can decline fast.

Read more: Pete Alonso gets real about Darryl Strawberry relationship

But Alonso is certainly showing no signs of decline this season. In fact, his .264 average, .861 OPS, 26 home runs, and 93 RBIs as of August 11 show that he's on track to produce one of the best seasons of his career.

New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) hits a three-run home run off of Milwaukee Brewers relief pitcher Brad Boxberger (45) during the sixth inning of their game Tuesday, September 20, 2022 at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wis. Brewers20 16 | MARK HOFFMAN/MILWAUKEE JOURNAL SENTINEL / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Pete Alonso's Impending Free Agency Assessed by MLB Expert

However, as good as Alonso has performed this year, this won't quell the questions that New York's front office had about offering him a long-term deal last offseason. And CBS Sports' R.J. Anderson alluded to this in an August 11 article that ranked the top 10 free agents this upcoming offseason.

"Who's ready for another round of Alonso discourse? He may well establish a new career high in OPS+ this season, making it unlikely that he exercises his $24 million player option. That doesn't necessarily mean that he's conquered the ghouls and goblins who haunted his free agency last offseason, nor does it mean he's going to find the kind of lucrative long-term contract that he would've been a few decades ago," Anderson wrote.

"Rather, Alonso's general profile (a 30-something right-right first baseman) and brow-raising underlying statistics (despite a reduced strikeout rate, his in-zone contact rate has declined by nearly six percentage points) could again limit his outlook to a shorter-term arrangement worth between $27 and 30 million annually," he added.

Most Home Runs, New York Mets History:
Darryl Strawberry, 252
Pete Alonso, 252 👀pic.twitter.com/BAqlixVDfZ

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) August 9, 2025

Despite what Anderson said, Alonso was still ranked as the sixth-best free agent in his article. This is a testament to what Alonso has accomplished to this point in his career and serves as further proof that even if the Polar Bear does begin to decline, his power will still ensure he has a home in the middle of some MLB team's lineup for years to come.