Mets should hold course on rotation and not rush to acquire a starter

The organization made a deliberate effort to load up on depth over the offseason, and this is precisely the reason why.

New York Mets starting pitcher Sean Manaea (59) plays catch during a spring training workout at Clover Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Just because Sean Manaea (oblique) and Frankie Montas (lat) will miss a month of the regular season with injuries does not mean the New York Mets need to panic by acquiring a backend starter.

And the reason is simple: With the exception of Dylan Cease, who the San Diego Padres have indicated is no longer available via trade, none of the remaining options are that good. The Mets do not need quantity in their rotation, they need quality. None of the available options give them that.

The most common request from members of the fanbase is for the team to bring back veteran Jose Quintana for a third season in Queens. His first two years with the Mets were fairly productive, with the lefty going 13-16 with a 3.70 ERA in 44 starts and 246 innings.

But the injuries to both Montas and Manaea are not expected to be season-ending. They will simply cause them to miss about a month of the regular season (Montas may miss more, if his ramp up takes longer than expected).

Quintana is a guy you would sign if you were covering 25 starts in one rotation spot (i.e. someone needs Tommy John and you need to elevate your full season floor), not to cover 8 starts over two rotation spots https://t.co/ygpiZmos8z

— Jarrett Seidler (@jaseidler) February 24, 2025

Quintana is the ideal addition if a pitcher were to go down for the entire season, say due to Tommy John or a shoulder issue, and the team needed to raise the floor of the rotation for all of 2025. But that is not where the Mets are right now; adding an aging veteran in Quintana, one who is expected by most ERA estimators to have production in the low-to-mid 4s, does nothing to raise the ceiling of the rotation for the season.

What are the odds that the 36-year-old Quintana, who had a 4.56 FIP and 4.52 Expected ERA last year, is able to somehow dramatically outperform his inputs for a second consecutive season? It is entirely possible that Quintana is not in the team's top five or six starters by the second half.

Without Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, the Mets figure to open the season with a rotation of:

1. Kodai Senga
2. Clay Holmes
3. David Peterson

The final two spots will be some combination of Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning and Tylor Megill.

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) February 24, 2025

Backend candidate Griffin Canning, signed as a free agent this offseason, has been working with the team's pitching lab and has the potential to break out in New York. Clay Holmes has looked like a potential ace through the first part of spring, flashing significantly improved "stuff" in his first spring training start.

Read more: Mets' Clay Holmes flashes ace-caliber "stuff" versus Astros in spring opener

Top prospect Brandon Sproat is the first in a line of incoming homegrown Mets starters. He dominated Double-A last season and deserves a chance to show if he is ready for the major leagues. Blade Tidwell and Dom Hamel could potentially be available for starts early in the season if needed, behind veterans Tylor Megill and Justin Hagenman.

The only thing adding Jose Quintana does for the Mets in 2025 is locking in a number five starter in the rotation, while preventing the team from seeing what improvements some of the other rotation candidates have made. The same goes for trading for former Met Marcus Stroman, currently on the outs with the New York Yankees and rumored to be available via trade.

If a frontline starter, such as Dylan Cease, were to become available, the calculus changes. But adding a backend starter simply to bridge a month of rotation injuries would be a mistake for an organization that has been outspoken on the need to develop more homegrown talent.

This injury situation right here is why the team loaded up on depth last offseason. Use it.