Mets are 'Logical Pursuers' for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Next Offseason, Per Insider

With the chances of a Pete Alonso reunion now looking unlikely, the New York Mets may be forced to begin the 2025 season without a traditional first baseman. However, their long-term solution at the position might arrive next winter.

If the Toronto Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. fail to reach an extension by Guerrero’s self-imposed deadline of Feb. 17, the four-time All-Star plans to play out the final year of his contract before hitting free agency. Much like Juan Soto this winter, Guerrero is expected to be the top prize on the market, and ironically, some of the same suitors could be competing for his services.

On Thursday, New York Post columnist and MLB insider Jon Heyman reported that the Mets are considered one of the most logical suitors for Guerrero if he becomes available.

"If Guerrero does get to free agency, the Mets and some Soto also-rans — including the Red Sox and Yankees — are logical pursuers," Heyman wrote. Not long ago, Guerrero had insisted he would never play for the Yankees, but Heyman clarified that the All-Star slugger no longer holds any animosity toward the team, meaning the Mets' crosstown rival cannot be completely ruled out.

This winter, the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays stayed in the bidding war for Soto until the very end, when the 26-year-old superstar ultimately signed a record-breaking 15-year, $765 million deal with the Mets. With the Yankees settling on veteran Paul Goldschmidt as a one-year stopgap and Boston’s Triston Casas often mentioned in trade rumors, all three teams make sense as potential landing spots for Guerrero, who is set to enter his age-26 season.

Guerrero, who debuted in 2019, posted a .323/.396/.544 slash line with 30 home runs, 103 RBI, and just 96 strikeouts in 159 games last season. Over six years in the big leagues, he has accumulated 21.5 bWAR and has missed no more than six games in a season since 2020.

Like Alonso, Guerrero struggles as both a defender and baserunner, finishing with -10 Outs Above Average, -1 defensive runs saved, and a -5.6 BsR in 2024. However, the former third baseman did win the Gold Glove Award at first base in 2022.

Spotrac estimates Guerrero’s market value at 12 years for $427 million, based on his age and elite offensive production. Some believe that figure could rise to $500 million or more if he puts together a strong 2025 campaign, with several deep-pocketed teams vying for his services.

On paper, Guerrero would add even more firepower to a Mets lineup already featuring two MVP candidates in Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto. He nearly teamed up with Soto once before on a stacked Dominican Republic roster for the 2023 World Baseball Classic, but withdrew from the tournament as a precaution after tweaking his knee in a Spring Training game.

Barring any trades, 2024 breakout third baseman Mark Vientos is expected to shift over to first base this season due to the diminishing number of starting-caliber free agents available at the position. That would set up a third-base competition between Luisangel Acuña, Ronny Mauricio, and Brett Baty, who claimed the Opening Day job last spring.

If Guerrero's contract ultimately aligns with current projections, Mets owner Steve Cohen could face significant luxury tax penalties for the foreseeable future. Lindor is owed $34.1 million annually through 2031, while Soto will earn around $51 million annually through 2039, assuming he doesn't opt out. Combined, those three players’ salaries would surpass the total payrolls of a third of the league’s teams in 2024.

If the Mets cannot secure Guerrero as their first baseman of the future, next offseason’s free-agent class also includes Josh Naylor, Yandy Díaz (club option), Paul Goldschmidt, Rhys Hoskins, and star Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami.