Mets vs. Marlins preview: Series hinges on the bullpens

The bullpens loom large as the New York Mets open their final regular season series against the Miami Marlins.

Sep 25, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; The New York Mets celebrate their win against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

It all comes down to this.

After defeating the Chicago Cubs yesterday to keep their one-game lead over the Cincinnati Reds, the New York Mets are now three games away from returning to October. Standing in their way is their longtime division rival, the Miami Marlins, a team that has been a thorn in their side for years.

The Marlins were officially eliminated from playoff contention after their loss yesterday, but they will still send their three best starters — Sandy Alcántara, Eury Pérez, and Edward Cabrera — to the mound against New York. The Mets will have Brandon Sproat pitching Friday, and beyond that it’s uncertain.

In the end, this series will likely be decided by one question: whose bullpen holds stronger?

Mets vs. Marlins: How bullpens may shape the outcome

Sep 25, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; New York Mets pitcher Edwin Díaz (39) gestures after getting the final out against the Chicago Cubs during the ninth inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

The key to the Mets’ success in this series will hinge on two things: how their bullpen holds up and, perhaps more importantly, how quickly they can get into the Marlins’ bullpen.

The Mets’ bullpen, which struggled for much of the second half, has quietly begun to find its form. In their recent series against the Chicago Cubs, high-leverage relievers Edwin Díaz, Tyler Rogers, Brooks Raley, Ryan Helsley, and Ryne Stanek combined for 10 scoreless innings, allowing just three walks, four hits, and striking out 12.

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Over their last nine games, dating back to September 15, New York's bullpen has posted a 1.71 ERA in 47.1 innings pitched. While the team has leaned heavily on its relievers due to a lack of length from the starting rotation, every arm in the bullpen will need to perform in Miami.

#Mets relievers ERAs over their last 9 games since September 15.

As a team, their bullpen has a 1.71 ERA in 47.1 IP during that span. They're still throwing way too many innings (58%), but this is promising... pic.twitter.com/FBk5hLzFus

— Michael Baron (@michaelgbaron) September 26, 2025

The second key for New York is getting into the Marlins’ bullpen as quickly as possible. Miami’s bullpen was one of the team’s biggest strengths for much of the season, keeping them in playoff contention longer than expected. However, it has completely fallen apart in the second half.

Since the All-Star break, the Marlins’ relievers rank dead last in MLB, posting a 4.74 ERA, 5.07 xERA, 5.04 FIP, and a -1.1 WAR. With the Mets facing three tough starters this weekend, they’ll need to work deep counts and force their way into the Marlins’ bullpen.

2nd half Marlins pitching
SP: 4.72 ERA/4.50 xERA/4.29 FIP/+3.7 WAR/19th in MLB
RP: 4.74 ERA/5.07 xERA/5.04 FIP/-1.1 WAR/30th in MLB

With the #Mets facing Alcantara, Eury, and Cabrera this weekend, gameplan seems very clear.

Drive up the SP pitch counts, attack the bullpen

— Christopher Soto (@SotoC803) September 26, 2025

Meanwhile, the Mets will be keeping an eye on the rest of the league, as the two teams chasing them — the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks — face off against the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres, respectively. Despite the matchups around them, the Mets control their own destiny. Their focus is simple: win, and everything else will take care of itself.

First pitch in Miami is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EST, with the Mets relying on rookie Brandon Sproat as they face off against former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcántara.