Predicting the New York Mets’ qualifying offer decisions

The New York Mets will have several important qualifying offer decisions to make before the start of free agency.

May 15, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Mets logo on the sleeve of J.D. Martinez during a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Compared to last year, there is a much longer gap between the New York Mets' final out and the start of free agency. As they wait for the postseason to finish, their next order of business is deciding on qualifying offers.

Once the World Series concludes, the Mets will have five days to decide which free agents to extend the one-year qualifying offer to. As a repeat luxury-tax payer, New York would receive a draft pick between the fourth and fifth rounds should any of their free agents reject a qualifying offer and sign elsewhere for at least $50 million.

According to the New York Post, MLB’s qualifying offer is expected to be worth approximately $22 million this offseason—topping last year’s record of $21.05 million. Since the system was implemented in 2012, only 14 of 144 players to receive a qualifying offer have accepted it.

In 2024, the Mets extended the qualifying offer to three players—Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, and Pete Alonso. Although Alonso stated Sunday that he plans to opt out of his contract and re-enter free agency, players cannot be tagged with the offer two years in a row. Therefore, the Mets would not receive any draft pick compensation if the first baseman signed elsewhere.

Pete Alonso says he will opt out and become a free agent this offseason

On his future with the Mets: "Playing for this organization, this city - they've continued to believe in me. I love playing here. There's some great guys in this clubhouse, some great people on the staff.… pic.twitter.com/Lpa32DEEno

— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) September 28, 2025

New York also cannot extend the qualifying offer to relievers Ryan Helsley, Gregory Soto, Tyler Rogers, or center fielder Cedric Mullins. Each of the four deadline acquisitions are ineligible since they were traded in-season.

But even with five players ineligible, the Mets will likely still have five other pending free agents to decide on in the coming weeks. Here is a look at each of them, along with predictions on the route New York will take:

Edwin Díaz (if he opts out)

Similar to Alonso, Díaz has an opt-out clause in his contract after the 2025 season. However, the three-time All-Star closer has not yet made a final decision on whether to test free agency or play out the remaining two years and $38 million left in his current deal.

Edwin Díaz has not yet thought about if he'll opt out of his contract

If he does, he says he would "love" to return to the Mets: "I love this organization - they've treated me really, really good" pic.twitter.com/WqELPCVH4t

— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) September 28, 2025

Díaz, 31, made 62 appearances for New York this season, posting a 1.63 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 13.3 K/9 rate while converting 28 of his 31 save opportunities. With those dominant numbers, many have speculated that the star closer will in fact opt out to seek a long-term deal.

Prediction: If Díaz opts out and does not agree on an extension before free agency, the Mets will certainly extend him the qualifying offer. The one-year value is in the ballpark of what he could earn annually on his next contract, so there is no risk in offering that deal—though he would decline it.

Starling Marte

After finishing out the four-year, $78 million contract he signed ahead of the 2022 season, Marte is set to become a free agent for just the second time in his 14-year MLB career.

Marte, 37, overcame a slow start and performed well in his limited role, platooning at designated hitter and playing 65 innings in the outfield. He appeared in 98 games, batting .270/.335/.410 (.745 OPS) with nine home runs, 34 RBIs, and nine stolen bases.

Prediction: No qualifying offer. At this stage of his career, a $22 million AAV would be a massive overpay for Marte. That said, the Mets could still try to bring back the highly respected veteran leader at a lower cost.

Jesse Winker

After contributing to the Mets’ second-half postseason run in 2024, Winker re-signed with the club on a one-year, $8 million contract. Unfortunately, injuries kept him off the field for most of 2025.

Winker, 32, hit .229/.309/.400 (.709 OPS) with one home run and 10 RBIs over 26 games this season. He missed extended time with an oblique injury earlier in the year, and shortly after returning in mid-July, returned to the IL with back inflammation—an issue that sidelined him the rest of the way.

Prediction: No qualifying offer.

Read More: Mets’ Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong earn impressive MiLB Awards in 2025

Ryne Stanek

Another trade acquisition from 2024, Stanek returned to the Mets on a one-year, $4.5 million contract at the end of January.

Stanek, 34, posted a 5.30 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and 9.3 K/9 rate over 65 relief appearances in 2025. The hard-throwing right-hander particularly struggled in the second half of the season, allowing 18 runs (17 earned) with 22 strikeouts in 24.1 innings of work—resulting in a 6.29 ERA.

Prediction: No qualifying offer.

Griffin Canning

Canning, 29, arrived with little fanfare upon joining a crowded Mets rotation mix on a one-year, $4.25 million deal last December. But very early on in 2025, the right-hander emerged as one of the club’s most pleasant surprises.

In 16 starts with the Mets, Canning went 7-3 with a 3.77 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and 8.3 K/9 rate over 76.1 innings. His season came to an abrupt end on June 26, when he suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon during a 4-0 victory over the Atlanta Braves.

Canning was certainly trending toward earning a nice raise in free agency before his injury, but now that he has a lengthy recovery still ahead of him, Spotrac projects his market value to be similar to what the Mets gave him last offseason.

Prediction: No qualifying offer.

In addition to Alonso and Díaz, Mets right-hander Frankie Montas (owed $17 million in 2026) and lefty reliever A.J. Minter (owed $11 million in 2026) have player options looming. But due to both players’ injury situations, an opt-out for either is viewed as highly unlikely.