Why 2026 is a Make or Break Season for Mets' Kodai Senga

2026 looks to be a pivotal year for Kodai Senga after back-to-back disappointing seasons.

Aug 8, 2025; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga (34) looks on during a mound visit in the fifth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images | Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

If you could think of one player on the New York Mets who is facing a critical season in 2026, it would be Kodai Senga.

The now 33-year-old enjoyed an exceptional rookie season in 2023, logging a 12–7 record with a 2.98 ERA and 202 strikeouts across 166.1 innings pitched. This not only produced a second-place finish in the National League Rookie of the Year race, but Senga also received NL Cy Young votes and finished seventh on the ballot.

Unfortunately, the right-hander's last two seasons have been marred by injuries and inconsistencies.

Senga missed all but one start in the 2024 regular season after suffering a moderate posterior capsule strain during spring training, which placed him on the 60-day injured list. In his season debut on July 26, he promptly landed back on the shelf after suffering a high-grade calf strain; the righty would return during New York's postseason run that season but struggled to a 12.60 ERA in three playoff appearances.

Hi, Kodai! 👋 pic.twitter.com/RzJFbq7yem

— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) February 6, 2026

At the beginning of the 2025 season, the Mets thought they were getting the 2023 version of Senga when he boasted an MLB-best 1.47 ERA in his first 13 starts. However, a hamstring injury during his June 13 start not only resulted in another trip to the injured list, but derailed his season in the process. The Japanese hurler posted a 6.56 ERA upon his return from the IL and was sent down to Triple-A Syracuse on September 5; he would not return to the major leagues for the rest of the year.

So it goes without saying that Senga needs to show results this season, or his tenure in Flushing may come to a disappointing end.

Aug 14, 2025; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga (34) pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Although the Mets still owe the "Ghost Fork" pitcher $30 million over the final two years of his current contract, calling Senga an automatic lock in the rotation this upcoming season might be a stretch.

At the beginning of the offseason, the Amazins' made it a priority to add a true ace to their rotation after lacking one for most of last season. They did just that when they acquired All-Star starting pitcher Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers in a blockbuster deal with the Milwaukee Brewers. This move immediately puts Peralta at the top of the rotation alongside rookie phenom Nolan McLean, who dazzled in his first taste of major league action down the stretch.

Read More: Clay Holmes Gets Honest About the Mets' Rotation

The Mets are also slated to have Clay Holmes, Sean Manaea and David Peterson at the back end of the rotation, meaning they would either roll with a six-man rotation that includes Senga or choose a different role for him. Holmes is surely a lock to be in New York's rotation after impressing last year as a full-time starter.

Despite Manaea and Peterson struggling towards the latter half of last season, Manaea is still only two years removed from cementing himself as the Mets' ace during that magical 2024 season. Additionally, Peterson's excellent first half of last season, which earned him his first All-Star selection, has certainly not gone unnoticed by the Mets.

If there is any other added pressure for Senga to post a bounce-back season, New York also has Jonah Tong and Christian Scott as potential rotation options. Tong made five starts for the Mets last year and showed flashes of being elite despite a bloated 7.71 ERA.

As for Scott, he is continuing to rehab from Tommy John surgery, which cost him all of last season and cut his 2024 season short. But he is also still thought of as a pitcher who has ace-caliber upside.

To put it bluntly, the chips are not in Kodai Senga's favor, with the Mets having a plethora of promising talent out of their other starters who have shown what they're capable of. So if anyone has a murky future with the team in 2026, it is their once-former ace.

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