Why MLB's Potential Lockout Could Impact Mets' 40-Man Roster Calls

The deadline to protect players from the Rule V Draft is rapidly approaching.

The Mets need to add infielder Jefferson Rojas to their 40-man roster this winter. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

We are less than a week away from the Rule V roster deadline, which is when all teams must lock in their 40-man rosters to protect players from that draft. The Rule V draft is designed to prevent teams from hoarding too much young talent, allowing players who have been in an organization for a while but aren't on a 40-man roster to be selected by a new organization to presumably get a faster path to the majors.

The New York Mets have a lot of Rule V-eligible prospects this offseason, including big names like top prospect Jefferson Rojas and starting pitcher Jack Wenninger. 40-man space also matters since the Mets need to remove some players to make room for new big-league additions, such as signing free agents like Tarik Skubal or completing trades to bolster the roster.

As of Wednesday, the Mets' 40-man roster is currently full, but they can create space by either non-tendering players like Mark Vientos and Ronny Mauricio or waiving players to try and sneak them into the minor league side of the organization. The Mets do have six prospects who could be candidates to be taken in the Rule V draft, including Rojas, Wenninger, Gary Gill Hill, Ryan Clifford, Chris Suero and Jacob Reimer.

Adding all six would mean President of Baseball Operations David Stearns needs to clear six roster spots before even adding external free agents, but 2022's lockout could present an interesting gamble for him to take.

Why 2022's lockout could impact the Mets' Rule V strategy in 2026

Just like in 2022, the offseason is likely to grind to a halt at midnight on Dec. 2, stopping all big-league transactions until a new collective bargaining agreement is reached, since the owners plan to lock out the players. The big league portion of the Rule V Draft is currently scheduled for Dec. 9, which is during the Winter Meetings, but those will likely be canceled if there is a work stoppage.

This exact script played out in 2022, but since the lockout dragged into March, the Rule V draft simply skipped a year and was not rescheduled during the 2023 campaign. With that precedent in mind, Stearns could opt to play a bit fast and loose with his Rule V protections if he thinks there won't be a draft this offseason due to a protracted lockout.

There are three locks that Stearns will almost certainly add to his 40-man roster to ensure they are covered in any scenario: Rojas, the club's top prospect, alongside starting pitchers Wenninger and Gill Hill, who was part of the Freddy Peralta trade at the deadline. Players like Reimer and Clifford would merit more consideration in a normal year, but if there is a chance the Rule V draft doesn't happen again, the Mets could save precious 40-man spots by holding off on adding anyone else until next winter.

That strategy could allow the Mets more flexibility to keep fringe players even as they aim to conduct most of their offseason business prior to Dec. 2. This strategy is risky, but past precedent shows that Stearns may want to consider this approach so he can have his cake and eat it too in regard to maximize flexibility for the organization.

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