Insider gets clear about Orioles ace's Cy Young hopes

Could Baltimore Orioles hurler Trevor Rogers really win the 2025 AL Cy Young?

May 5, 2024; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; The Baltimore Orioles logo on the sleeve of designated hitter Gunnar Henderson (2) as he prepares on deck during the seventh inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images | Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

Baltimore Orioles left-handed pitcher Trevor Rogers had very little hype heading into the 2025 MLB season. He was coming off a 2024 campaign where he posted a 2-11 record with a 4.92 ERA in 25 starts, which included an abysmal 7.11 ERA across four starts for Baltimore after he was traded from the Miami Marlins.

Plus, Rogers had an alarming injury history, which limited him to 18 innings pitched during the 2023 season. So once Rogers suffered a partially dislocated right knee before the 2025 season began, there was no reason to be optimistic about him making an impact on Baltimore's upcoming season.

Fast forward about six months, and Rogers has not only been the Orioles' best player this season, but has also been baseball's best pitcher since the 2025 MLB All-Star Game.

Jul 6, 2025; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Trevor Rogers (28) pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Despite missing the first few months of the year, many in the baseball community (especially Orioles fans) think Rogers has done enough in the past several months to warrant consideration for the 2025 AL Cy Young award, despite having almost half of the starts that frontrunners for the award (such as Detroit Tigers southpaw Tarik Skubal) have submitted.

Insider Pours Cold Water on Trevor Rogers' 2025 AL Cy Young Chances

While Orioles fans might still be holding out hope, USA Today MLB insider Bob Nightengale shut down any chance of Rogers winning the Cy Young this season in a September 21 article.

"Baltimore Orioles ace Trevor Rogers won’t win the Cy Young award this season, but no one in the American League has been so dominant since missing the first two months of the season with a partially dislocated kneecap," Nightengale wrote.

Trevor Rogers: 17 starts, 16 earned runs allowed 😮 pic.twitter.com/oOHEvlIgad

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) September 20, 2025

"Rogers, who has pitched only 106.2 innings this season, has made 17 starts, and given up just 16 earned runs for a 1.35 ERA to go along with his .178 opposing batting average and 0.87 WHIP.

"His ERA is the second-best among pitchers with at least 16 starts since 1920, trailing only Hall of Famer Bob Gibson in 1968, who yielded a 1.12 ERA," he added.

While Rogers might not pitch enough in 2025 to be a realistic Cy Young candidate, he should be on a short list of frontrunners for the award in 2026, especially if he finishes the last week or so of the season strong.

Read more: Trevor Rogers sends telling message about Baltimore Orioles future

What's for sure is that Baltimore seems to have found a diamond in the rough with Rogers, who can anchor their rotation once 2026 rolls around.