Mike Elias Was Once Lauded As A Drafting Guru. The Actual Results Suggest Just The Contrary

There are certain things Mike Elias and his sycophantic assistants cannot resist reaching for, and certain things they believe in doing no matter what. Their drafts seem to wreak of bizarre vanity projects now that they are amidst their eighth on the job.

So it shouldn’t surprise anyone that Elias drafted another outfielder with his first pick and that the individual he selected will need some significant alterations made to his bat path and mechanics if he is to produce at the major league level. This time, it was a high-school centerfielder, Eric Booth Jr with the seventh-overall pick; the last three years it had been a college outfielders.

This is nothing like the NFL or NBA process; we all know it will take years to assess the effectiveness of what the Orioles did selecting players this week. But we also know that the “type” of profiles Elias continues to lean into require a degree of player-development expertise this front office has not come close to displaying.

Once upon a time Elias was hailed as an expert evaluators, and that reputation has lived on misguidedly. In reality he’s pretty atrocious. He’s been here since 2019; he clearly took the wrong player with his first ever pick – Adley Rutschman over Bobby Witt Jr – and every draft save for that first draft begs major questions of Elias and his assistants. They have abstained from investing in arms, they have missed brutally and miserably throughout their first 10 picks between 2020-2024 and they gave away prime 2025 draft capital to land Shane Baz in trade.

None of their first-round picks have come remotely close to living up the hype Elias helped fuel.

And taking on a player like Booth Jr, given how inept Elias’s crew has been with maximizing the talent of the hitters they have selected, may prove to be too cute by half as well. Consider the 2024 bat they selected in the first round who needed swing alterations (Vance Honeycutt) might never advance beyond Hi-A and the 2023 first-rounder who needed swing adjustments (Enrique Bradfield Jr) is seen in the industry as an all-glove, fourth outfielder if he can stay healthy.

The misguided belief and hubris from this crew is downright staggering, but then again Elias is the guy who told you on Aug. 8, 2022 that it was “liftoff” and he was smart selling off veterans at that deadline because was so great at his job that there was a “decade-long window opening up, I think.”

You thought wrong Ivy League. As always, you thought wrong.

2020 Draft – D

OF Heston Kjerstad (2nd overall), IF Jordan Westburg, OF Hudson Haskin, SS Anthomy Servideo, 3B Coby Mayo, P Carter Baumler

Elias told you Heston Kjerstad was plenty fine as a corner outfielder defensively and had left-side power built for Camden Yards. He would arrive quickly, the Orioles strongly suggested. Losing time to Covid-related illness hurt but he never was taught to play a position, the bat was always going to be massive swing-and-miss (Elias almost demands this of his top picks at this point).

Kjerstad spent all season in AAA and has a career .649 OPS in 106 games.

Westburg can’t stay heathy, Mayo has no position and they have effectively made him a bench bat only against lefties and Baumler couldn’t stay healthy but the Ranges took him as a Rule V guy anyway ad he got a chance in their pen before landing on the 60-day IL.

2021 Draft – D-

OF Colton Cowser (5th), 2B Connor Norby, OF Reed Trimble, OF John Rhodes, OF Donta’ Williams, P Carlos Tavera, SS Collin Burns, OF Billy Cook

Cowser was over-drafted out of smaller Sam Houston State. Swing and miss remains a massive problem, he still cannot hit a change up and is feast or famine. Power is what he offers and he’s prone to massive slumps and he has 8 homers and 27 RBI and a .659 OPS this season. Newsflash: he is a platoon OF at best.

Newsflash: OF James Wood (62nd overall) was playing right under their noses and so was OF Jackson Merrill (27th overall), but who needs them?

Disgusting thing is, Cowser’s their best pick in this draft. They loaded up on outfielders and none of them could play and only two – Cowser and Cook – even played well in AAA. Passed on an entire wide swaths of interesting arms – and quick moving arms – for this mess.

2022 Draft – F-

SS Jackson Holliday (1st), OF Dylan Beavers, 3B Max Wagner, OF Jud Fabian, P Nolan McLean, C Silas Ardoin, P Trace Bright, OF Doug Hodo, P Preston Johnson

Trust me, there are no hidden gems deeper in this thing. Holliday can’t play second base at MLB level let alone short, has one of the lowest stolen base percentages of MLB regulars and can’t get on base 30% of the time 1000 PA into his career. He should be dealt this month.

Beavers has a chance to be a real contributor but most of the rest of this list are long gone and the best player Elias took in this draft and the best selection of a pitcher he’s ever made by far he was too cheap to sign. He had a pick value of $800,000 and this guy gave $19M a year to Tyler O’Neill and $19M to Chris Bassitt when he was cooked and I could go on.

Stuff like this would get you fired if anyone in ownership had a pulse

Yes, a tanking GM who didn’t ever want to spend on MLB talent didn’t want to pony up what it would take to keep McLean, who became a staple in the Mets rotation last year and pitched in the WBC and was among the betting favorites for NL Cy Young before the season began.

Didn’t need that guy! When Elias was asked about this in August 2022 quipped – “We’re getting a pick back next year.” Oh yeah? How’d that turn out?

2023 Draft – Too Early To Tell But Shaky As Hell

Bradfield (17th), IF Mac Horvath, P Jackson Baumeeister, P Keifer Lord, OF Tavian Josenberger, P Levi Wells, OF Jake Cunningham, P Jacob Cravey, P Teddy Sharkey, P Braxton Bragg

This is the draft they wanted to prove they could evaluate pitchers so they loaded up on them and it’s probably going to fail miserably despite the usual suspects in the media trying to sell you on the typical BS after nine years of being played and manipulated.

They used a lot of this capital to land Zach Eflin, who was mostly hurt and already broken when Tampa peddled his salary to Elias. The only chance at a position player is Bradfield but this has been another lost season for him and he still can’t hit. Injuries stalled some of the more interesting arms. Wells or Nestor German (11th round also in AAA) or Bragg when he comes back from Tommy John better be a thing in the next year, or this could be a total washout.

2024 Draft – Way Too Soon But F For First Round

Honeycutt (22nd), SS Griff O’Ferrall, C Ethan Anderson, OF Austin Overn, Chase Allsup, C Ryan Stafford, SS DJ Layton, P Carson Dorsey, C colin Tuft, P Jack Crowder

Honeycutt may eventually advance to AA, but not on merit. Great glove and can run but he somehow has a .575 career OPS and for someone who was power or everything (again, Elias is a total fool) has a .282 SLG and he’s been above age for his level pretty much his entire career.

Nate George (16th round) is the best position player prospect in this system and it’s not close. He also hasn’t played much baseball due to an “undisclosed illness.” They desperately need him to be a thing and I love his makeup and speed and power … But he is raw and a long ways off. No one else in this draft is even in the Orioles Top 30 list on MLB Pipeline and this is a “middling at best” farm system as I recently discussed with MLB Pipelines Jonathan Mayo on “The Daily Flock.”

Yeah, this looks like an evaluation and player development crisis that someone else needs to be brought in to fix ASAP. And you would have to be quite daft to give Elias any benefit of the doubt on his drafts as this point.

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