Inside The Orioles

Baltimore Orioles Losing Corbin Burnes Might Save Them From Nightmare Deal

Star pitcher Corbin Burnes was great again this year for the Baltimore Orioles, but a recent trend could be cause for concern.
Dylan Sanders|
Sep 26, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium.
Sep 26, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

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Baltimore Orioles

All signs currently point towards the Baltimore Orioles losing their star ace Corbin Burnes to free agency. Could that actually be a good thing in the long run?

While there is obviously a lot of excitement around a perennial Cy Young candidate, one recent trend could be a cause for concern for whatever team dishes out a contract to Burnes.

In looking at the top 10 free agents of this offseason, CBS Sports' R.J. Anderson wanted to find at least one downside to signing them.

For Burnes, it is drop in strikeout production that has spanned over the past few seasons.

When the former Milwaukee Brewers ace won his Cy Young back in 2021, he was striking out 12.6 batters per nine innings. That number has dropped each season and has now reached a new low of 8.4 in 2024.

With that, his WHIP has also risen each year. This past campaign was still an impressive 1.096, but it is still moving in the wrong direction.

It isn't a command issue, either, because he hasn't seen a big increase in walks. Batters are just missing the ball less against him and barreling the ball up much more.

During his miserable month of August for the Orioles this season, his strikeouts dropped to just 7.85 per nine and his ERA jumped up to 7.36.

With the rise in contact, he hasn't seen a big increase in groundballs either.

It hasn't come back to bite him yet, but continued regression could lead to regret for a team that is willing to dish out a huge contract for him.

Along with the red flags popping up in his play over the past few years, Anderson also noted that the 'workhorse' nature of Burnes should also worry some teams.

The 30-year-old has finished with 190 innings or more for each of the last three seasons. In this age of pitcher injuries, a lot of people would be way for giving someone that eats so many innings a long term deal.

Not every pitcher that throws a lot sees it come back to bite them, but it happens enough to cause at least some anxiety.

Rather than giving Burnes a potential seven-year, $217 million deal, Baltimore might be smart to play it safe and look for a trade instead.

Unless a team has pocketbooks as deep as the Los Angeles Dodgers, the safe route can actually be the best.

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Dylan Sanders
DYLAN SANDERS

Dylan Sanders graduated from Louisiana State University with a degree from the Manship School of Mass Communication in 2023. He was born in raised in Baton Rouge, LA but has also lived in Buffalo, NY. Though he is a recent graduate, he has been writing about sports since he was in high school, covering different sports from baseball to football. While in college, he wrote for the school paper The Reveille and for 247Sports. He was able cover championships in football, baseball and women's basketball during his time at LSU. He has also spent a few years covering the NFL draft and every day activities of the New Orleans Saints. He is a Senior Writer at Inside the Marlins and will also be found across Sports Illustrated's baseball sites as a contributing writer. You can follow him on Twitter or Instagram @dillysanders

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