Which Trevor Rogers will the Orioles get in 2026?

After a dominant 2025 turnaround, questions linger about whether Trevor Rogers can sustain that level in his contract year.

Sep 19, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Trevor Rogers (28) throws during the third inning against the New York Yankees at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images | Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Trevor Rogers is coming off a dominant season and entering 2026 with renewed expectations, but questions remain about which version of the left-hander will emerge.

An extension has yet to materialize for Rogers, who is entering his final year of club control. In an article published Friday, MLB.com’s Thomas Harrigan named him one of the 10 most interesting contract years to watch in 2026, citing the inconsistencies that defined much of his early career.

“The past five years have been a roller coaster for Rogers, leaving the lefty with much to prove,” Harrigan wrote. “Is he closer to the pitcher who performed like a frontline arm in 2021 (2.64 ERA/2.55 FIP) and again in ’25 (1.81 ERA/2.82 FIP)? Or do his 2022-24 numbers (5.09 ERA/4.42 FIP) better reflect who he is? His walk year could reveal a lot.”

Trevor Rogers had the second-lowest ERA among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched! pic.twitter.com/mqzfL3HDc0

— MLB (@MLB) September 30, 2025

Rogers, 28, joined the Orioles in a 2024 deadline deal that sent outfielder Kyle Stowers and infielder Connor Norby to the Miami Marlins. He held a 2-9 record with a 4.53 ERA at the time of the trade, but Baltimore believed the southpaw still had All-Star upside. Ultimately, he posted a 7.11 ERA in four starts before being optioned to Triple-A Norfolk.

After opening the 2025 season on the injured list with a right knee subluxation, Rogers returned to Triple-A and did not rejoin the Orioles until serving as the 27th man for a May 24 doubleheader. He allowed two hits over 6.1 scoreless innings at Fenway Park, went back to Norfolk, then was recalled again in mid-June.

Rogers did not leave the Orioles rotation again, finishing 2025 with a 9-3 record, 1.81 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 5.5 bWAR over 18 starts. He was voted the winner of the 2025 Louis M. Hatter Most Valuable Oriole Award by local media and ended up ninth in AL Cy Young Award voting, despite his limited outings.

Trevor Rogers, 4Ks tonight (8 scoreless innings) pic.twitter.com/Y2tYW55IHQ

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 24, 2025

One of the biggest factors in Rogers’ turnaround was the resurgence of his fastball, which averaged a career-low 91.9 mph in 2024. The left-hander credited an offseason trip to Driveline, which identified that his velocity dip was caused by a significant loss of strength, particularly in his lower body.

Past back issues had led Rogers to avoid certain workouts in an effort to stay on the field, but the resulting loss of strength limited his ability to put hitters away. His new workout plan removed the need to overcompensate in his delivery, and in 2025, his velocity rebounded to the 93–95 mph range.

An improved fastball (+16 run value) made his offspeed pitches more effective. He generated positive run values on his changeup (+7), slider (+4), and sweeper (+3), creating deception with similar velocities but different breaks.

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As a result, Rogers excelled in both chase rate (29.9%) and groundball rate (46.4%). He also improved his strikeout rate to 24.3% and recorded a 2.28 FIP—an indicator that his 1.81 ERA was supported by underlying performance rather than pure luck.

Expecting a repeat of those numbers may be unreasonable, but Rogers’ improved velocity and effective offspeed arsenal offer optimism that he can be counted on as an ace in 2026 and beyond. Barring any injuries or late offseason additions, the rest of Baltimore’s starting rotation is expected to include Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz, Zach Eflin, and Dean Kremer.

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