Why 2026 Is a Make-or-Break Season for Adley Rutschman

There may be no player on the Baltimore Orioles who needs a big season more than Adley Rutschman.

The 28-year-old will be entering his fifth year with the Orioles, with just one more year of team control remaining after this season. Rutschman was the start of a new era for Baltimore after being drafted first overall by the team in 2019.

He debuted in 2022 and instantly looked like a rising star and a cornerstone piece for the Orioles for the next decade. That narrative only continued as he earned All-Star honors in both 2023 and 2024.

But then, when everything seemed to be trending upward, something changed after the All-Star break in 2024. After a strong first half, Rutschman struggled mightily down the stretch, slashing .207/.282/.303. Neither he nor the Orioles seemed overly concerned, believing 2025 would bring a return to form. It didn’t.

Few hitters will face more pressure than Adley Rutschman in 2026

Rutschman hit 2 HR on Opening Day in '25— but just 7 more across 90 games

The internal clock is ticking with Samuel Basallo's promise lurking

The good news? His advanced data hasn't regressed at all since 2023 pic.twitter.com/hIq4GwefuT
— High Leverage Baseball (@HighLevBaseball) February 13, 2026

Last season, Rutschman slashed .220/.307/.336 with just nine home runs in 90 games. He dealt with multiple oblique injuries that may have contributed to the dip in production. However, the growing sample size has started to raise real concerns about his future as a star player.

Adding even more pressure to the situation is Samuel Basallo. The Orioles’ top prospect is major league–ready and expected to cut into Rutschman’s playing time behind the plate. If Basallo proves to be the real deal and Rutschman continues to falter, his grip on the starting job could loosen quickly.

The good news? The underlying metrics still believe in him.

According to Statcast, Rutschman actually improved in several key areas compared to 2024. He lowered his chase rate by 7.2% and hit the ball harder, posting an average exit velocity of 89.4 mph. His barrel rate also climbed to 7.5%, up from 6.1%, matching his 2023 mark. The contact quality suggests the foundation is still there.

Adley Rutschman decreased his Chase% by 7.2% last season, which was the 3rd largest improvement among qualified hitters from '24 to '25.

He had a career-high Max EV (111.3 MPH), Avg EV (89.4 MPH), & a career-low Whiff% of 14.5%, down 2.6% from '24.

Really excited for his '26. pic.twitter.com/WDarXBS51S
— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) February 14, 2026

Maybe the inconsistency was simply the result of those nagging oblique injuries at multiple points in the season. But 2026 won’t allow for more “maybes.” If Rutschman can return to his All-Star form, it not only boosts the Orioles’ playoff chances, it reestablishes him as one of the best catchers in baseball heading into his contract year in 2027.

If he still wants to be the player this organization builds around, 2026 has to be the season Adley Rutschman leaves no doubt.

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