Taking Stock Of Orioles Pen: Who To Trust, Who's Interesting And Who Has To Go

Orioles big-money (for them) free-agent closer Ryan Helsley was on the mound in a AAA rehab stint Thursday, trying to return from a lengthy absence that was supposed to be a few quick weeks.

And with the starting rotation regressing to what it was built to be after a fun two-week run – HYPER – and with several of the pieces in a janky bullpen looking quite shaky – it’s not a moment too soon. No one should be surprised at this point about this front office and medical staff being incredibly wrong about an injury situation or timeline. it’s a Mike Elias specialty as one of the most inept and incompetent executives in baseball gets carte blanch to mishandle every aspect of baseball operations for a once great franchise.

So let’s keep fingers (and claws, I guess?) crossed that Helsley doesn’t require much more time in Norfolk. Because this bullpen is running short on reliable arms. Once I was hoping that Rico Garcia could hold down the closer spot to mitigate an aging Helsley (whose fastball got destroyed last season), but, um, now they need to see if Helsley can throw more strikes and stay ahead in counts in the ninth inning.

Seems like a good time to take stock of a bullpen that never looked good on paper even as Elias thumped his chest about stocking a roster the entire industry would proclaim a real contender to win the AL East. The pen was always going to be vital because the rotation was never constructed to provide any length with a collection of old, injured, old and injured, middling prospects, inning eaters and whatever you could convince yourself Shane Baz could become.

Here’s who you can trust:

High-Leverage Worthy

Rico Garcia: I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a little worried here. We all know we’ve have seen the best of him, because he was unhittable for the first 20 innings of his season. That wasn’t sustainable, but there is also reason to believe the journeyman waiver-signing of a year ago could face some pretty extreme regression. On this unit, he is the go-to, set-up guy and rare arm around here who could give you outs in the 7th and 8th in same outing.

But …

He gave up two hits in his first 20 innings; he’s given up nine in the last 8 2/3 and a lot of very loud outs as well. He went from 24 Ks and 7 walks in those 20 inning to 7 Ks and 2 Ws since. But here’s the biggest issue – if batters start elevating against his fastball and his breaking ball, the margins get slim. Garcia yielded 19 groundballs to 18 flyballs in the first 20 IP; since its 20 flyballs to 7 groundballs with way less swing-and-miss and a plummeting K rate.

The fact he’s carrying a 330 ERA+ into mid June, no matter how he got there, is wild.

Yennier Cano: He’s back to being a sinkerball maestro who understands his role. He gets vital double play balls and has been infinitely better with inherited runners on in 2025 that in past years since he began to slip from his peak when he took MLB by storm and made an All Star team (Garcia still has a shot to do it too)

He’s getting 63% ground balls, second-highest rate in his career, which has his HR rate back where it needs to be (one surrendered this season). It’s going so good, and with so much variance in pen arms and with this team one that should sell – they might be able to fetch something interesting for him.

Tyler Wells: It’s been up and down for him, but this organization has also misused him and treated him like a cog instead of a great kid and intriguing arm. All the yo-yo stuff with his role and the way they’ve handled his arm problems. It’s sickening actually. But that’s The Elias Way. Given all of that and all the time missed, I think Thursday’s three-inning gem is more indicative of what the future holds.

When he’s been bad it’s been really bad, but he knows how to pitch and lean into his mix and he’s been a control guy his whole career in whatever role he was thrus into it. Despite the rough patches he’s still been 17% better than the average MLB reliver (117 ERA+). He’ll be fine.

Interesting Arms (Generously Speaking)

Anthony Nunez: He leads the pen with 36Ks and gets swords and not many in Baltimore have that kind of stuff or potential. As we told you weeks ago, he needed to be yanked immediately from anything resembling a leverage situation. And he largely has been. He’s in 96th percentile in whiff and 91st in chase so keep him around and see what he can do. But there are a lot of reasons for concern here, like the league slugging .576 off his fastball.

Cade Povich: Not sure when he is coming back from injury but always thought he could be an interesting multi-inning lefty reliever doing what Keegan Akin did for that brief stretch of time a few years back. The other lefties in this pen are getting smashed. And they might still need him in the rotation but I think he’d be most interesting in the pen.

Grant Wolfram: A lefty who cannot get lefties out (.349/.391/.442) and is a journeyman pushing 30 for a reason. But when he does well it makes Elias feel like he’s smart, and he gets lots of opportunities and on the bright side he doesn’t walk people. However, the league is slugging .470 off him, and they see those strikes pretty well. He makes the cut here, though, courtesy of a 1.37 FIP.

Good Luck

Keegan Akin: Projects nothing that looks like even he thinks he’s going to get anyone out. Even mop-up outings aren’t inspiring. Shoulda moved him for anything years ago. Prone to surrendering majestic homers. Already allowed 3 this season despite them trying to hide him; two of them are by lefties. Maybe quasi-useful match-up guy against bottom-of-the-lineup lefties.

Andrew Kittredge: When Elias signs a reliever for too much money in his mid-30s, he’s cooked. Book it. Already spent a stint on the IL. Carrying an ERA around 7.00. Allowed 19 hits in less than 15 IP. Doesn’t even look like a trade chip.

Albert Suarez: Does all their dirty work and has pitched out of some jams, but he keeps passing through waivers because he has some major flaws and is also older with no upside. Walking 12 guys in 26 innings is a problem.

Someone like Nestor German on the farm could be interesting to look at, and, really, whomever else they want to experiment with as well. There are a lot of holes here and while Helsley’s return should help, him going down around here, so soon, for so long, is quite the ominous sign.

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