The Tarik Skubal Trade Was A Gift To Orioles GM Mike Elias. He Needs to Take Full Advantage

The Tarik Skubal trade to the Dodgers has ramifications through the baseball world and it certainly holds significant meaning for the Orioles.

Detroit sending arguably the best arm in MLB – a rare lefty coming off consecutive Cy Young awards – to the mighty Dodgers to continue their dominance of the National League, with this much time before the trade deadline, puts Baltimore’s front office in a powerful position holding lefty starter Trevor Rogers and gives top exec Mike Elias ample time to auction him off.

Sure, it also significantly lessens the Tigers’ chances of competing for the final Wild card spot, with the Orioles 1.5 games off that pace. But after Elias indicated he is not going to buying to any real degree on Friday, and warned fans he’s not “sinking chips” into his 2026 product, the timing of Skubal's trade late Saturday night should only hastens the departure of perhaps the next best lefty on the market.

Make no mistake, the Tigers got three legit prospects – including two who have incredibly high ceilings - so LA could rent Skubal for the rest of this season. Rogers a 2.21 ERA over his last nine starts this season, wowing the scouts who have been bird-dogging him. And a since the start of last season, Rogers has a 3.04 ERA over 38 starts – the 20th best ERA of any starter in MLB to make at least 20 starts in that span.

If Elias isn’t buying, to try to truly push for title with a team that in bottom eight in MLB in winning percentage since June 21, 2024 and that has been below .500 virtually all of the last two seasons and has won more than three straight games once this entire season, then you absolutely must move Rogers on an expiring contract for a top 10 – and possibly top 5 – prospect and something else. That’s what he should fetch.

Elias struggles mightily to balance multiple offers and maximize his return for any individual player at trade deadlines whether buying or selling. He has more potential impact chips than ever before and a bevvy of possible trades, and myriad prospects from other teams to sort through. And the market for Skubal is loaded with clubs that already had at least a modicum of interest in Rogers and Elias has two full days to pick which one is most motivated to land him by 6pm Monday.

The Most Interested Teams

The Brewers are trying to keep up with the Dodgers … heck they are keeping up with the Dodgers, but unloaded Freddy Peralta before the season (sure they could get him back, but he’s been bad in New York), and a lefty would be preferable. They’ve watched Brandon Woodruff and Quinn Priester and Kyle Harrison go down, and they clearly have interest in Rogers, and they have arguably the most loaded farm system in MLB with redundancies in the infield and outfield and with starting pitching.

Packaging Rogers and a pen arm could fetch quite a return. Elias swung a blockbuster with them before to rent Corbin Burnes for one year.

The Cubs are trying to catch the Brewers in the NL Central and they, too, want pitching and they have some very interesting bats that a blocked right now given the powerful their lineup is, including Matt Shaw, a former University of Maryland star. The Orioles desperately need to get some AA or higher arms in return at this deadline – it has to be a focus for them – and if Elias had a clue he could play teams off each other to maximize return.

Chicago being without top young starters Cade Horton and Justin Steele has their front office under pressure to grab something real. They never had the stomach to pay the Skubal price but Rogers ain’t that. The White Sox, on the other side of town, are probably out now after taking on a big salary from the Mariners.

The Braves have dealt with a ridiculous string of pitcher injuries going back to last season. They also keep finding MLB starters well outside the first round of the draft and developing them and Rogers just went seven innings against them, walking no one, giving up just two runs. That can’t hurt.

The Rays continue to turn other people’s trash into their headliners and they are in buy mode more than every before and could use a starter to take heat off some of their overachieving arms. They have seen Rogers at his very best and definitely at his very worst and they are all over trying to land catcher Adley Rutschman from The Birds, as well they should be. Packaging these two together could help recoup the trove of prospect capital sent to Tampa for Shane Baz over the winter.

Only One Path Adds Up for Elias

If Elias had any inclination to compete with the most motivated GMs in MLB for real talent at the deadline that would be one thing. But he is a fringe guy who should have been fired three years ago who lives to save billionaires payroll dollars. A few quality starts out of Zach Eflin is all the immediate, in-season impact he’s ever added to a roster for the better at the deadline of note in eight seasons of work (of course his other moves that year were epic fails and then Eflin fell apart the following season).

Rogers has shattered twice before in his stint here, he might not be built for the playoffs and a real pennant chase, and he’s on an absolute heater with the opportunity to sell high on him. Rogers is on record saying the team has never tried to extend him, so clearly they have some reservations (which I get).

Elias has already told you out loud he doesn’t really believe in this club – nor should he since he built it to be so flawed and inept – and we know his boss, the owner, doesn’t want him to buy and doesn’t think his job should be on the line. He just traded a league-average starter with a year of control for a teenager.

Given that, if he doesn’t trade Rogers now, it would be entirely out of character from his profile. Dealing Rogers is at the core of who he is, and even a gaslighting fraud like Elias should be able to land something significant for him in this market.

Losing their only lefty starter would sting more than any of the other moves he will make inn real-time, but they can remain a .500-ish team with the potential to still sneak into the final playoff spot without him, and you just know Elias is dying to boost his farm rankings and find out.

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