This Orioles Season Hinges On 2 Particular Pitches From 1 Starting Pitcher

The most important single element to the Orioles flirting with being a contending team isn’t whether Gunnar Henderson hits lefties enough for a 40/40 season or how quickly closer Ryan Helsley returns from what was supposed to be a quick IL stint or even how many games stud rookie Sam Basallo appears in.

All of that matters, significantly, but I would argue that on a super granular level, the axis upon which this largely-suspect season swings is whether the knuckle curve becomes a true out pitch for Shane Baz, and whether he can fully develop a sinker. It’s critical that Baz be a legit No. 2 behind Kyle Bradish for what has been a horrible rotation; the arrow is trending way down on every other veteran starter (Trevor Rogers, Zach Eflin - already lost the season, Chris Bassitt, Dean Kremer – on the IL again).

The Orioles can surely hit better over the next 50 games than they did in the first 50 (low bar to clear) and they have at least some interesting arms and signs of development in the bullpen. But this marathon has just begun and I don’t care how watered down the American League has been, Bradish and a bunch of dudes with ERAs north of 5.50 and then hoping to cull five innings out of Brandon Young or Trey Gibson here or there is a recipe for disaster.

And for as bad as Baz’s fastball has been, and considering how infrequently he throws the changeup (despite how much the Orioles can’t stop talking about it), what’s fueled his potential turnaround in two stellar starts against his former team (Tampa) is in fact the knuckle curve and flashing a sinker.

Baz tossed 15 innings vs the (then first-place) Rays over two starts, striking out 15 while walking five, allowing just two earned runs on nine hits. He threw 193 pitches in those two outings, including 69 knuckle curves to 67 fastballs. Yeah, he leaned on that pitch more than ever, subjugated the fastball (for good reason, with the league slugging .545 off it) and kept the Rays off balance and got more swing and miss than we’ve seen all year against a lineup that excels at simply putting the ball in play.

Is that sustainable? Well, it might have to be.

Baz’s Profile Still Appears Problematic

Here’s where Baz ranks among all MLB pitchers in key metrics:

Pitching Run Value – Bottom 18%

Fastball Run Value – Bottom 27%

Breaking Ball Run Value – Bottom 28%

Offspeed Run Value – Bottom 27%

Expected Batting Average – Bottom 25%

Whiff Rate – Bottom 17%

Ground Ball Rate – Bottom 26%

Exit Velocity – Bottom 20%

Not great!

He has upped the usage of the knuckle curve from 27% last year in Tampa to 33% now (he’s thrown just 12 more fastballs than knuckle curves all season). And he’s thrown just 65 sinkers all season, but given how many homers and extra base hits and loud outs he surrenders off his four-seamer, getting more ground balls from the curve and sinker are imperative (especially if the infield defense can perform like it did Wednesday.

It’s very early, but the league is batting just .182 and slugging just .273 off the sinker, a pitch he did not deploy in the past. If that can help get whiffs and soft contact, and the knuckle curve rounds into form (the league hit .214/.321 off it in 2024 and just .169/.247 in 2023), that can offset a fastball that tends to catch too much of the plate and look too inviting to even hitters at the bottom of MLB lineups.

At the end of 162 games, barring injuries, Henderson is going to have strong numbers and Alonso will hit 35+ home runs. But the lineup has major swing-and-miss and volatility built into it, and it’s not going to be a super power that simply lifts them to 88 wins just by showing up. It might not even end up top 10.

And the fielding across the board, so awful for so long, lacks sufficient plus-pus defenders to be anything close to a strength. There is no substitute for starting pitching, and the defensive woes make it all the more critical to avoid longballs and keep the team in games. (Because the lineup tends not to start cooking until the sixth inning or later).

Baz needs to display at least ace-like tendencies more often than not, and live up to the billing from the front office and how much they gave up to get him, for this equation to hold up in a quasi-competitive manner (do not check the stats on any of the prospects Mike Elias parted with in this trade; spare yourself). It’s the glue – or scotch tape or cement, depending on your level of confidence – that this season hinges on.

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