MLB Experts Overwhelmingly Agree on Wild-Card Winner Between Padres, Diamondbacks

See who these MLB experts chose for the final wild-card spot the Padres and Diamondbacks.

Aug 4, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; San Diego Padres base runner Jackson Merrill (left) celebrates with Jake Cronenworth after scoring in the seventh inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It's been a roller coaster type of season for the San Diego Padres.

San Diego got off to a slow start, and then went on a surprising winning streak. However, they faltered before the trade deadline, and many thought they could ultimately sell.

However, they quickly turned things around in late July and have carried that momentum into the second half of the season. They now have a chance to make the postseason and possibly a deep run.

The Padres first need to clinch a spot in the postseason, though.

San Diego is in a tight race for the final wild-card spot against their division rival, the Arizona Diamondbacks.

It's a neck-and-neck battle, and although that is the case, a majority of ESPN's MLB experts picked the Padres to secure the final NL wild-card spot.

Of the 15 ESPN MLB experts polled, 12 of them chose the Padres to clinch the NL's sixth seed over the Diamondbacks.

"It comes down to the Padres' offense. For most of the season, San Diego's bats were inexplicably muted," ESPN's Jorge Castillo wrote. "Fernando Tatis Jr. didn't hit his first home run until May 30. Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill weren't producing. The Padres ranked 24th in the majors in wRC+ through July 23. Since then, they're fourth."

Can the Padres Hold Off the Diamondbacks?

FanGraphs agrees with the experts.

The Padres have higher odds of clinching the wild card, with a 57.1% chance compared to Arizona's 46.3%.

The Diamondbacks have a slightly easier schedule compared to the Padres at .517 compared to San Diego's .519.

As things stand, the Padres have a half-game lead over the Diamondbacks. San Diego has 16 games remaining in the season, while the Diamondbacks have 15 games remaining.

The race for the sixth seed could come down to the final weekend of the regular season, making the Padres and Diamondbacks' finale potentially crucial.

San Diego and Arizona will close out the regular season with a three-game set at Petco Park from Sept. 25-27.

As that series finale inches closer, the two teams are deadlocked in the season series at 5-5 in the 10 games they've played against one another.

The Padres will close out the season by facing all four of their division opponents, with the Miami Marlins sandwiched in the middle for a three-game series from Sept. 18-20.

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