Rays vs. Braves Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, Sept. 10

The Tampa Bay Rays are eyeing a sweep of the Atlanta Braves on Thursday afternoon, as back-to-back seven-run performances were easy enough for Tampa to take Games 1 and 2.

Atlanta has now lost three games in a row and has just a three-game lead over the surging Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East. Philly is heavily favored on Thursday afternoon against the Houston Astros, so the Braves may need a win to keep their lead at three.

Martin Perez (3.25 ERA) is on the mound for the Braves in this game, and oddsmakers have set Atlanta as a slight favorite at home, where it is 48-26 this season.

The Rays will counter with Nick Martinez (3.04 ERA), who has led the team to a win in 21 of his 27 starts this season. Martinez’s advanced numbers aren’t nearly as good as his ERA suggests, but the Rays have lost just two of his starts since July 1.

Let’s dive right into the odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for this series finale between two playoff contenders on Sept. 10.

Rays vs. Braves Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Rays +1.5 (-205)
Braves -1.5 (+168)

Moneyline

Rays: -101
Braves: -120

Total

8.5 (Over -105/Under -15)

Rays vs. Braves Probable Pitchers

Tampa Bay: Nick Martinez (14-4, 3.04 ERA)
Atlanta: Martin Perez (8-9, 3.25 ERA)

Rays vs. Braves How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Sept. 10
Time: 12:15 p.m. EST
Venue: Truist Park
How to Watch (TV): ESPN Unlimited, BravesVision, Rays.TV
Rays record: 87-58
Braves record: 85-61

Rays vs. Braves Best MLB Prop Bets

Braves Best MLB Prop Bet

Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run (+317)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run props column – Daily Dinger – why this is a great matchup for Olson:

Atlanta Braves star Matt Olson has a familiar matchup on Thursday night, and it’s one that he’s thrived in throughout his MLB career.

Olson is taking on the Tampa Bay Rays and right-hander Nick Martinez, who has given up 19 home runs in 27 games in 2026, posting a 3.04 ERA. While Martinez has some solid numbers on the surface, his advanced metrics tell a different story.

The right-hander ranks in the 41st percentile in expected ERA, the 11th percentile in expected BAA and just the 18th percentile in ground-ball percentage. So, Olson and the Braves should be able to lift the ball in Thursday’s series finale.

Olson is 6-for-16 (.375) against Martinez in his career with two homers and a 1.224 OPS. This season, Olson is hitting .244 with 23 homers against right-handed pitching, and he’s homered seven times over his last 25 games.

Rays vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

Both of these starters have better actual numbers than their advanced numbers, as Martinez sits in the 41st percentile in expected ERA and the 11th percentile in expected BAA while Perez is in the 22nd and 14th percentile in those categories.

Still, I don’t think pitching will be the main thing that decides Thursday’s series finale.

The biggest difference in this matchup?

The offenses.

Tampa Bay is fourth in runs scored, third in batting average and seventh in OPS over the last 30 days, pushing it to fourth in the league in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) for the season. Over that same 30-day stretch, the Braves are dead last in MLB in runs scored, 29th in OPS and 25th in batting average.

Atlanta hasn’t been an elite offense this season (20th in wRC+), but this recent fall off is pretty drastic.

Since Perez has allowed at least four runs in three of his last four outings, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Rays hang on and complete the sweep. After all, they’ve won 21 of Martinez’s 27 outings this season.

Pick: Rays Moneyline (-101 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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