Padres Ace Predicted to End Free Agency With $187 Million Deal

Sep 13, 2025; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease (84) reacts after walking a batter during the fourth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: David Frerker-Imagn Images | David Frerker-Imagn Images

Is Dylan Cease coming back to the San Diego Padres?

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The talented pitcher had a rough 2025 by his standards. Even with 4.55 ERA and an 8-12 record, Cease will have no shortage of options out on the open market.

Jim Bowden of The Athletic believes Cease is the No. 8 free agent available in this class. Given his arm talent coupled with his age (29), there's no doubt he'll be highly pursued by several ballclubs looking to upgrade their rotation.

"Cease has started 32 or more games in each of the last five seasons, striking out more than 200 batters each year while logging between 165 and 190 innings," Bowden writes. "This season, he led NL starters in strikeouts per nine innings (11.5) but also saw his walk total increase and his ERA jump to 4.55. His HR/9 also rose from 0.9 in 2024 to 1.1 this year. The wobble in command is a concern, but his ability to miss bats, durability and career FIP of 3.67 will have several contending teams lining up to bid for his services."

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Bowden projects Cease to land a very lucrative multi-year deal — most specifically a six-year contract at $187 million. Additionally, the former GM tends to think that the Padres could still be in play to bring him back. Other possibilities include the Atlanta Braves, Detroit Tigers, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, Los Angeles Angels, San Francisco Giants, Baltimore Orioles, and Boston Red Sox.

It remains to be seen as to whether the Padres are seriously contemplating bringing Cease back or not. Curiously, despite a wave of trade rumors, the team did not deal Cease at the July trade deadline even with him set to hit free agency. Michael King is also a free agent.

The rotation is still up in the air in terms of returning players. Nick Pivetta projects to be the anchor of the group. Randy Vasquez will be returning, as will Joe Musgrove after sitting out all of this past year due to recovering from elbow surgery. Yu Darvish is also back on the books, though his age (39) and injury history is somewhat troublesome.

Mason Miller could also factor into the mix as a player the team stretches as a starter option rather than just being employed as a closer or high-leverage reliever. Adrian Morejon could be utilized similarly given the situation, his talent, and past history as a starter himself.

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